High conviction financials for 2025
Financials
Galliano's Financials Research
Bradesco, Hana Financial and Bank of Baroda are Victor Galliano’s top picks amongst the GEM banks due to deep value with positive returns catalysts, while his sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging. In the Japanese banks, Victor identifies Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios. CME Group is his 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a "flow monster" with a very strong competitive position. PagSeguro is his deep value, contrarian pick in payments.
Edition: 201
- 13 December, 2024
Consumer Staples
Faces an uphill battle to win back share as competition increases, trends move toward ‘better-for-you’ options and ongoing supply chain problems that have caused defections do not return. Blueshift's industry sources also stated that MNST's reduced promotions risks alienating a customer base that is trained to expect discounts. Red Bull remains the dominant competitor and gained share last year with its aggressive marketing as well as its success in bars and restaurants (an opportunity MNST missed). Celsius Holdings is also taking share and stands out as a primary healthier option along with Alani Nu.
Edition: 129
- 18 February, 2022
Real Estate
A monster disposal? According to React News, a Green Street news publication, BLND is about to agree terms for the sale of a 75% stake in its Paddington Central holding (London’s West End) to Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC. Pricing of “just over £800m” implies a c.£1.1bn value (~£1,150/sf; est. 4% EPRA NIY), in line with Green Street’s spot valuation est. of the c.1m sf inner London estate. While selling a stake in Paddington would be a win for shareholders, deleveraging is not on the cards as BLND has several external growth ambitions…
Edition: 117
- 20 August, 2021