National Vision Holdings (EYE)
Consumer Discretionary
$1bn retailer of non-discretionary product trading at lowest-ever price and multiple. John Zolidis sees comps improving as 1) replacement cycle revs up, 2) remote medicine initiative adds capacity and 3) maturation from recent store openings. Based on his estimates, investors are getting the unit growth for free. Assuming modest comp recovery and MSD EBIT (consistent with low end of guidance) an 8x EV/EBITDA results in a ~40% return vs. 14% downside over the next 12 months. Over 3 years, John estimates a ~90% return. However, if the multiple even modestly re-rates (e.g. to 10x vs. historical average of 16x) a 3-year return could be >140%.
Edition: 189
- 28 June, 2024
Consumer Discretionary
New short idea generated from Eric Fernandez’s ‘Declining Business Model’ - key takeaways from his 25-page report include: 1) Sales have fallen for four quarters. 2) Gross and EBITDA margins have contracted to pre-pandemic levels and Eric expects margin problems to intensify. 3) Remote optometry and automated vision checking are devaluing EYE’s optometry services. 4) The company is plagued by customer complaints. 5) Management’s acquisition and expansion strategies are constrained by debt levels. 6) Multiples are historically high and ignore deteriorating fundamentals.
Edition: 151
- 06 January, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
Opportunity to buy a hardline growth retailer with perhaps the best combination of unit growth, unit level ROIC and economically defensive model in the market - John Zolidis believes the Street is underappreciating the company's ability to benefit from trade-down, the stickiness of higher ticket (which has a margin benefit), as well as conservative guidance (EYE has beaten analyst estimates for 10 consecutive quarters). He also sees some optionality for remote testing to structurally reduce operating costs. 60% upside.
Edition: 134
- 29 April, 2022