Nickel in turmoil after hitting $100,000 per ton
David Radclyffe’s team reviews the listed nickel equities in a world of increasing geopolitical and LME market tension, and volatile price swings that will continue throughout 2022. After a very large market deficit last year of ~130kt he estimates a balanced market in 2022 with price forecasts raised from US$7.45/lb to US$11.75/lb. There are very few investable nickel equities left, but GMR prefers IGO and Nickel Mines, and Vale among the diversified miners.
Edition: 131
- 18 March, 2022
Nickel: Recycled projects adding to production growth
High prices with a favourable outlook have driven interest in nickel. Old projects are being recycled and presented with fresh economics. David Radclyffe reviews the sector, introducing the ranking system for nickel producers. Key takeaways include idled projects in Australia and Zambia predicted to restart in the near term with good economics (50-75kt/yr by 2023). David’s preferred Nickel exposure is through Nickel Mines Ltd (leverage), IGO (quality) and MMC Norilsk (Value) now upgraded to BUY.
Edition: 121
- 15 October, 2021
Nickel’s price isn’t quite right
Tony Robson’s latest report explains that the price of nickel is not fully supported by the fundamentals. It is true that demand growth rates have been strong, but so has the surge in production from Indonesia, which will grow from 150kt in 2015 to 1,330kt in 2025. Positively, Tony expects EV’s to account for 21% of global demand in 2025 (from 2% in 2015). The best listed exposure globally to Indonesian growth is through BUY-rated Nickel Mines, while HOLD-rated Norilsk Nickel has the best dividend yield.
Edition: 114
- 09 July, 2021