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All that glitters is gold
Gold has been setting new highs through 2025 as the best performing major commodity. The music will come to an end, but David Radcliffe says that until that happens, a spot gold price over US$3,800/oz will generate some extraordinary returns. He examines the impact that spot prices could make to a sector that has already benefited from a robust 18 months. The 2026 consensus gold price is ~US$470/oz below spot, implying further upside if prices are maintained. On David’s expectations, spot prices into 2026 could lift sector EBITDA another 30% after an expected 67% lift in 2025. His covered gold stocks trade at a discount with spot P/NPV5 of 0.87x, or an implied gold price of ~US$3,330/oz, a 13% discount. There remains a value argument for gold miners, plus earnings momentum. David’s preferred exposures remain Agnico Eagle, Kinross and Northern Star of the seniors, and IAMGOLD, Equinox and Alamos of the more leveraged intermediates.
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
Materials
GMR maintains a Buy rating on NST following their KCGM site visit, reaffirming the mine’s Tier 1 status with a US$6.7bn NPV5 valuation. The A$1.5bn expansion remains the key near-term focus and risk, but appears on track for completion within 12 months. While the market remains concerned about lower near-term FCF and high capex (~A$500m/year), GMR sees KCGM as strategically critical, with meaningful upside from displacing low-grade stockpiles with higher-grade ore, improving mill throughput and ramping up the Fimiston underground. The mine’s long life, production growth potential (to 850-900koz by FY29) and exploration upside through high historical OVMs make it NST's crown jewel, but successful delivery in the near term remains crucial for realising that value.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
Large cap miners: Performance and growth are not related
As Sellside and Buyside set expectations for 2025, Global Mining Research examines the recent history of the leading miners. Interestingly, only Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Albemarle Corporation, Ivanhoe Mines Ltd, and Northern Star Resources Limited are estimated to have materially grown through investment and M&A over 2020-2025E. In fact, most miners have shrunk in terms of Cu Eqv. Production, and exiting coal was a clear trend. The copper miners have outperformed, despite iron ore miners clearly returning the most cash to shareholders in dividends. Buybacks should have helped the share price return but there is little evidence this works. For over half the group, a ‘buy and hold’ strategy has not generated a robust return over the period. This reinforces the view that miners are to be traded.
Edition: 202
- 10 January, 2025
Digging for gold
A spate of new gold projects is about to be delivered after a period of subdued development, with nine new projects in David Radclyffe’s coverage ready to contribute to production over the next 18 months. With the potential to add over 2.5Moz AuEq per year by 2026, the projects will see a meaningful increase in production for the companies concerned. All projects are forecast with a by-product AISC below US$1,000/oz, offering healthy margins ahead. Overall, Côté is the most impressive of the new projects in terms of valuation, impact on the owner (IAMGOLD), and jurisdiction, despite the rocky road on the way. David favours companies with proven reliability to deliver together with lower risk, such as Agnico and Northern Star, and those with slightly higher risk, including B2Gold, Centerra, IAMGOLD and Perseus.
Edition: 188
- 14 June, 2024
Copper vs Gold
Gold miners have traditionally been considered premium rated miners, yet copper stocks covered by GMR have moved to a premium compared to gold and other base metal and bulk miners. Gold stocks are out of favour with valuations underperforming the gold metal price during 2023; the high beta of gold stocks presents an opportunity when the gold price gains traction. Preferred equities include Lundin Gold and Northern Star. Copper stocks remain attractive as supply weakness and low inventories are offset by macro concerns. Preferred stocks are Atalaya Mining and Taseko Mines as junior miners, and Sandfire amongst the mid-larger names.
Edition: 170
- 29 September, 2023
Foreign ownership cycle of Australian gold production
David Radclyffe’s latest gold sector report examines the M&A cycle in Australia, with the country having witnessed a full cycle of foreign acquisitions. The trend started with the significant loss of Australian mines, peaking in 2003 at 60% foreign ownership. Over the years the trend reversed, but now the cycle has moved back to Australian gold companies and assets being attractively priced to international peers. With the proposed acquisition of Newcrest by Newmont, we could see foreign ownership levels lift back to ~40%. Northern Star and Evolution appear well poised to attract domestic investors looking to move on from Newcrest and to take advantage of the next phase of industry rationalisation in Australia.
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Gold sector: 2023 looking positive (so far)
Gold prices will always be volatile but two of the unexpected headwinds of 2022, inflation and USD strength, have now peaked. David Radclyffe reviews the outlook for the sector in 2023. He expects gold equity inflows as price and margin pressures of 2022 abate and the potential for surpluses return. M&A is expected to continue, and significant C-suite turnover offers opportunities to reset stale strategies. Preferred stocks are Barrick, Endeavour and B2Gold for scale/value, Northern Star and Evolution for leverage to better gold/copper prices and Lundin Gold and Centerra for attractive potential in smaller caps.
Edition: 152
- 20 January, 2023
Materials
Sub-A$9.00 this gold producer offers great value for a lower risk / higher growth senior - NST trades at 1.6x P/NPV (1.1x spot - close to an 18-month low), and FY23 FCF and dividend yield of 8.4% and 3.1% respectively. There is a clear pathway to ~2Moz/yr and GMR sees a potential cash surplus of ~A$0.8bn over FY23-FY25 which could be used to fund organic growth such as the KCGM mill expansion and / or increase returns to shareholders (dividend could be raised closer to A$0.5bn/yr). TP A$12.00 (40% upside).
Edition: 137
- 10 June, 2022
How to pick a gold stock in 2022
Global Mining Research’s BUY and SELL signals served investors well in 2021 despite some market disconnect between equity price and numerous variables, including dividends. This year, David Radclyffe sees the gold sector shifting more to a growth/scale focus over returns/balance sheets; so, more M&A, growth investment, inflation impacting margins, lower dividends and a focus on ESG. David’s latest report looks for stocks that match the investment themes within the sector. Key picks include Agnico Eagle (new BUY signal), Barrick Gold, Northern Star Resources and Endeavour Mining.
Edition: 129
- 18 February, 2022
Aussie gold: Recalibrating portfolios, increasing spending
Headwinds from labour shortages and inflation have made 2021 performance lacklustre, but factors that usually favour gold, such as inflation and geopolitical risk, are clearly on the rise. Growth capital expenditure is set to more than double the rates of a few years ago at ~US$375/oz in FY22 in order to satisfy investors. David Radclyffe’s preferred exposure to Aussie gold is through Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining (recently upgraded to BUY), whilst St Barbara falls in last place as difficult choices lay ahead.
Edition: 128
- 04 February, 2022
Aussie golds spending their dollars
Australian gold companies are heavily reinvesting their cash surpluses. This increased investment indicates companies are becoming more confident in higher prices for the long-term, backed by unleveraged balance sheets. BUY rated Evolution Mining (target $4.80) is expected to reinvest ~US$400/oz in major/growth capital over FY22-FY24E. Northern Star Resources is looking at reinvesting ~US$195/oz but remains the preferred BUY rated Aussie gold with a target price of $14.00.
Edition: 116
- 06 August, 2021