Novartis (NOVN SW) Switzerland

Healthcare

Starling Advisors

The company's new strategy is starting to bear fruit. The pipeline has improved and a new wave of promising drug candidates is helping NOVN re-gain its lost momentum. It has recently reported good news on the product side - with the extension in the EU for Entresto, the positive readout for NATALEE, as well as the approved new site of production for Pluvicto - and now showing strong growth and margin expansion. As NOVN continues to deliver good results, the stock should re-rate.

- 01 September, 2023

Novartis (NOVN SW) Switzerland

Healthcare

Foveal Research

Contrary to market expectations, Dr Amit Roy believes NOVN is likely to win the $6bn+ early-stage breast cancer market, beating Lilly - Kisqali carries the lowest discontinuation rate, differing from Verzenio in lacking its compliance limiting troublesome diarrhoea side effect. NOVN is uniquely utilising a dose lower than its metastatic trials to further improve compliance, while additionally administering the drug for three years instead of two as seen with its competitors. Unrivalled metastatic overall survival efficacy compared to Verzenio leads Foveal to see Kisqali both meeting its endpoint in NATALEE, and likely demonstrating better efficacy than seen so far with Verzenio in MONARCH-E.

- 03 February, 2023

Overwhelming Valuation Case for Large Cap Pharma

Healthcare

Willis Welby

Pharmaceutical stocks are significantly cheaper than Consumer Staples (which look expensive and vulnerable) and should form part of the defensive ends of portfolios - half of Willis Welby’s Pharma coverage comes in with implied to Y3 EBITM ratios that are less than 100 and these ratios exclude the imponderable benefit of new science and consequently numbers are MUCH MORE conservative. Top picks: GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Roche and Novartis.

- 20 August, 2021

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK LN) UK

Healthcare

Intron Health

Disputing Elliott Advisors’ 45% upside - Intron's SOTP analysis explains why this is unlikely to occur within the timeframes proposed. GSK Pharma (ex-ViiV) would have to trade on 59x 2022 PE and CHC on 30x 2022 PE whilst ViiV would have to trade on 12x 2022 EPS despite the DTG patent expiry in ~6 years. However, Intron does support Elliott’s view that the board needs more industry knowledge; plus the incentivisation scheme needs a major overhaul in-line with the most innovative companies in the sector such as Novartis and AstraZeneca.

- 09 July, 2021