China Pharma’s strategic pivot and global impact

Healthcare

CHA-AM Advisors

David Scott argues US efforts to lower drug prices are unintentionally accelerating the rise of Chinese pharmaceutical firms. Rather than exporting drugs, Chinese companies are licensing them to US firms and avoiding tariffs. This shift reflects a deeper evolution: China Pharma is moving from capital-intensive manufacturing to IP-driven innovation, as rising R&D-to-sales ratios confirm. Meanwhile, incumbents like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk face over-earning backlash, political scrutiny and disruptive competition. AI is also accelerating China’s lead times on drug development, especially in areas like obesity. David highlights Jiangsu Hengrui, 3SBio, Hansoh and Innovent as part of this structural shift. While many US investors tell him that they “can’t buy China”, he warns they can’t afford to ignore it, given the bearish implications for Western pharma incumbents.

- 11 July, 2025

Trump transition, FDA/RFK risks & Medicare Advantage/Healthcare Services outlook

Healthcare

Aldis Institutional Services

The Trump transition, Cabinet Nominations and Republican healthcare agenda are front and centre for healthcare services, managed care and pharma / biotech investors. With near-daily headlines from Washington driving sentiment in healthcare equities, Aldis Institutional's policy-focused events provide investors with timely and actionable insights into the DC landscape. This differentiated platform combines small group conversations with key stakeholders and policymakers, with real-time market commentary from Aldis' senior team. Recent and upcoming event topics include the outlook for Medicare Advantage, Hospitals, FDA Changes Under the Trump Administration and near-term catalysts such as FDA compounding policy impact on Hims & Hers Health, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

- 13 December, 2024

GLP-1s and FDA compounding outlook

Healthcare

Aldis Institutional Services

Aldis Institutional is hosting an ongoing series of small group events with industry contacts and stakeholders on the outlook for US FDA action on compounding GLP-1s. Earlier this year, the FDA announced the end of the shortage of tirzepatide - which would have prevented companies like Hims & Hers Health and LifeMD from producing lower-cost compounded versions. As a result of industry ligation, FDA is reviewing this decision - creating uncertainty for patients seeking to access GLP-1s, telemedicine companies and manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. For access to the events or the Aldis content library of past transcripts please contact us for further details.

- 01 November, 2024

Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) Denmark

Healthcare

Intron Health

Market fears on pricing are far too pessimistic. Intron models a 2027 Wegovy price of $200/mth in the US (~20% above consensus) and is ~30% above consensus on Novo’s Obesity portfolio in 2030. They believe Wegovy will become the US market leader by volume and will benefit from step edits from 2027 onwards. Intron models Commercial & Medicare channels separately for both price & volume and shows compelling evidence that Novo and Eli Lilly will shut out new entrants in the late 2020’s. Intron’s own cost/benefit analysis shows Wegovy from 2027 has broadly similar value to Ozempic, which has extremely strong market access.

- 20 September, 2024

Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) Denmark

Healthcare

Smart Insider

Sylvie Gregoire (Director since 2015) spent €184k at DKK 913, increasing her holdings by 26%. This is her fourth purchase and her largest. She last bought shares in May 2022 at DKK 395, and before that in Aug 2017 at DKK 144, both of which were timely. Smart Insider ranked the stock +N on Aug 8th based primarily on a €228k purchase from Christina Law (Director since 2022), her largest purchase and the highest price she has paid. Andreas Fibig (Director since 2018) also recently increased his stake in the company. As a result, Smart Insider upgrades the stock further to +1 (highest rating).

- 23 August, 2024

Plenty of value on offer in Big Pharma

Healthcare

Willis Welby

The sharp fall in the median implied to Y3 EBITM ratio for Willis Welby’s Healthcare coverage is all about Pharma. This leaves a median ratio for the subsector of just 94 which gets you good financial productivity, neutral revisions and a median consensus Y3 revenue growth rate of 7.4%. While the share price of Novo Nordisk discounts a lot of success, at the other end of the scale there are some companies where ratios seem to be getting more cautious without much obvious justification. GSK and Sanofi’s share prices are both consistent with a catastrophic future which makes no sense. Roche is not far behind. Given the normal dislocation of Pharma dynamics from wider economic ones this also looks like a major opportunity from a risk management perspective as well as from a value perspective.

- 10 November, 2023

SAP (SAP GR) Germany

Technology

AIR Capital

SAP is guiding for cloud revenues to reach €14.1bn (+25% Y/Y) in FY23, suggesting growth will be far stronger in H2 vs. H1, in total contradiction with the current economic slowdown and competitors’ recent comments. Pierre-Olivier Essig struggles to share management’s bullishness which has led to him downgrading the stock to Sell (from Buy). His new TP is €100 (previously €140).

AIR continues to boast an enviable track record with impressive gains on Buy-rated stocks including Aixtron, Meier Tobler, Novo Nordisk and Rolls-Royce, as well as shorts including Fresenius Medical Care and Grifols.

- 13 October, 2023

Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) Denmark

Healthcare

Intron Health

Following Intron’s deep-dive on once-weekly insulin icodec, they increase their peak sales forecast to $2.5bn and increase their TP to DKK800. The basal insulin market is a complicated arena with high levels of competition, differing views on how to treat patients, falling prices and adverse channel mix. Having spoken to US endocrinologists & community diabetes doctors, Intron have constructed a detailed bottom-up basal insulin model. They show that insulin icodec could achieve 25% market share and a daily net price of $5/day.

- 04 March, 2022

BioPharma R&D Supercycle

Healthcare

Intron Health

Using Intron’s extensive proprietary database of 617 drug approvals and the outcome of 404 P3 assets, they show concrete evidence that the rate of innovation across the BioPharma industry is accelerating. They believe it’s almost impossible that the sector isn’t making a supernormal ROI on R&D. Based on the burgeoning output of the industry Intron shows that EU Big Pharma still looks undervalued. Their top picks are Sanofi, AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.

- 04 February, 2022

EU Pharma: The forgotten sector

Healthcare

Intron Health

Sector fundamentals have been materially enhanced since Covid struck with sales set to grow 5% CAGR 2021-26 and net income 7% CAGR. Moreover, drug output has been consistently high for most companies. This enhanced output has come due to a decade of investment which is now normalising and should allow margins to grow by 300bps over the next 5 years. Despite this, current share prices imply terminal growth rates are negative even as the background level of innovation is accelerating. Sanofi, AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk are Intron’s top picks for the next 12 months.

- 29 October, 2021

Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) Denmark

Healthcare

Intron Health

Intron’s detailed obesity model shows that Wegovy can achieve $7bn in peak sales with a path to $10bn if Medicare reimbursement is achieved. This will drive 200bps of margin expansion by 2026 (despite management guiding to a flat margin and Intron including $2.6bn higher SG&A spend and $1.7bn higher R&D spend 2021-26). Intron forecast 9% CAGR sales growth over the next five years with the potential for material upgrades (currently assumes zero sales from Alzheimer’s, concizumab, Mim-8 and the oral PCSK-9).

- 01 October, 2021

Pharma ESG: A sector specialist’s view

Intron Health

Intron Health Research’s latest report shows clear evidence that typical Pharma ESG ratings bear little resemblance to mid-term share price performance. They have therefore designed an ESG framework unique to the industry; governance is at the forefront of the model whilst social factors have a lower weighting. They show that AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk fare the best, and GlaxoSmithKline and Roche fare worst.

- 17 September, 2021