Mexican Banks: Selective value in smaller caps

Financials

Galliano's Financials Research

Aside from Trump’s tariff policies, Mexican banks are under pressure from the government to deliver on more competitive lending rates, with fintech challengers Nubank and MercadoLibre’s MercadoPago gaining traction. Despite these challenges, 1Q25 results were sound and the bank sector participated in the somewhat surprising Mexican bolsa rally in April. In this report, Victor Galliano applies his proprietary scorecard - which assesses valuations, balance sheet strength, returns and credit quality - that is then weighted across ten criteria to arrive at his investment picks; BanBajio, followed by BanRegio, rank as the top two. Inbursa is bottom ranked.

- 16 May, 2025

EM Digital Banks

Financials

Galliano's Financials Research

Victor Galliano turns bullish on KakaoBank, for its increasingly secure competitive positioning in Korea, its attractive digital efficiency ratio, its low customer acquisition cost and for its high activity rate. He switches his Buy rating from Banco Pan to Inter as the latter has improved operationally, it is sound on capital and attractive on valuations. While Nubank is executing well, Victor remains cautious on the stock as he continues to see potential capital constraints as a key risk, along with its stretched valuations.

- 31 May, 2024

TMT Idea Forum

MYST Advisors

It was not surprising to hear several AI-related ideas given recent fervour for plays on the burgeoning technology, but it was unusual to see so many hardware / semiconductor ideas presented at a broad TMT event. Participants were focused on stocks that were relatively inexpensive even when valued on GAAP earnings. While most participants did not dispute their fellow presenters’ large earnings forecast deltas vs. consensus, many heavily debated the appropriate multiples to apply to those earnings. The most compelling ideas included:

Corning (GLW) - “Green shoots” emerging from cyclical bottom while margins structurally higher. TP $50 (45% upside).
Nu Holdings (NU) - “The best FinTech in the world” completely mis-modelled by the Street. TP $10 (100%+ upside).
Shutterstock (SSTK) - Leading photo "Arms dealer” with generative AI to drive new leg of growth. TP $150 (100%+ upside).

- 17 March, 2023