EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Nutanix (NTNX)

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

SPR’s latest channel checks indicate that large deals are finally progressing after previous delays as enterprises were still evaluating their alternatives and negotiating with Broadcom. However, some channels criticise NTNX for its rigid pricing strategy, suggesting the firm should adopt a more aggressive sales approach like Pure Storage. As expected the Dell / NTNX partnership continues to grow and SPR also believes NTNX is making progress on enhancing its Acropolis Hypervisor (ACH), that some estimated previously had ~80% of the functionality of VMware ESX. Enhancements to ACH will make it easier for NTNX to replace VMware, especially in complex operating environments.

Edition: 206

- 07 March, 2025


Nutanix (NTNX)

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

Sales Pulse continue to pick up more positive views of the tailwinds for Nutanix and examples of deals that are driven by Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware however, channels are quick to state that the move from VMware is challenging, at least for large users. In Nutanix upcoming report we expect to see more evidence of growth from the Broadcom/VMware acquisition as well as the other catalyst that we have discussed in recent notes (increase in partnerships including Cisco, Dell and additional VARs), but rapid acceleration seems unlikely. Many speakers at Nutanix’ Next Conference in Barcelona discussed their move from VMware to Nutanix.

Edition: 188

- 14 June, 2024


Broadcom's uplift in pricing shocks VMware users

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

SPR provides recent field feedback on AVGO’s actions, users reactions and vendors who are benefitting. While many acquisitions do not produce the increases in revenue and cost synergies that were promised, based upon AVGO’s aggressive approach, SPR expects it will immediately deliver strong results for both metrics. Despite the disruption and animosity it is creating, SPR is picking up many examples of end users who are paying much more to AVGO then they were prior to this acquisition (price hikes of 100-1000% have been reported). These end users are locked into some or all the VMware products. The cost of switching is very high and, in some cases, will take years. Other vendors discussed include Nutanix, IBM Red Hat and HashiCorp.

Edition: 183

- 05 April, 2024


Tech Trends: Key themes and questions for 2024

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

Areas of focus for Sales Pulse in the year ahead will include: 1) Cybersecurity - changing end user priorities and competitive dynamics. 2) UC/CC/CP - will a reduction in seat count negate increased ARPU from AI features? How will continued M&A impact this market? 3) Vendors benefitting from the rapid growth in DevOps / DevSecOps. 4) Gap in orders in 1H24 for networking market as end users digest backlog and we await ramp of next generation. 5) Broadcom acquisition of VMware driving end users to look at alternatives, to the benefit of IBM Red Hat and Nutanix. 6) Ramp of funding for Broadband Infrastructure. 7) Impact of CSP Marketplaces on Distributors and VARs.

Edition: 177

- 12 January, 2024


Ubiquiti (UI)

Technology

Two Rivers Analytics

Sales have fallen for three quarters, from a growth rate of 51% last June to -23% in the quarter just ended. Margins have collapsed (gross margins down from 48% to 42% and EBITDA margins from 39% to 31%) and the company has added $1bn of debt since 2017. The share price is only down 13% YTD and is still 10% higher than a year ago. Eric Fernandez believes UI warrants a closer look as a potential short candidate with the stock trading at high multiples of both sales and earnings (46x Jun 22 and 35x 2023 earnings). Other companies flagged in Eric's ‘Breaking Estimates’ model are Nutanix, Upstart and Corsair Gaming.

Edition: 137

- 10 June, 2022


Best short ideas in Software

Technology

Summit Insights Group

Former software engineer, Srini Nandury, who was the original bear on Nutanix and JFrog, highlights three names that continue to offer material downside…

Gitlab (GTLB) - Reminds Srini of JFrog; market fragmentation and intense competition will limit growth.
HashiCorp (HCP) - Growth to slow more quickly than investors realise; VMware catching on faster as it did with Nutanix. Stock could easily fall to $22.
UiPath (PATH) - Turned bearish with the stock at $70 last June. Expensive solution in a commoditising market; Microsoft is quickly vaulting to the leadership position in RPA.

Edition: 131

- 18 March, 2022