Technology
Galliano's Financials Research
Victor Galliano sees the disparity in valuation between AFRM and Klarna as more of a downside risk for AFRM than an upside opportunity for KLAR; the intense competition in the BNPL marketplace is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth expectations and he believes that AFRM should lose some of its “scarcity value” as a near pure play on BNPL in view of KLAR’s listing. With regards to Victor’s recommendations on payments companies in general, he maintains Buy ratings on PagSeguro, Nexi and PayPal for their value credentials primarily and upgrades KakaoPay from Sell to Neutral, following its marked de-rating.
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
Ranking the winners and losers in Global Payments
Technology
Galliano's Financials Research
Victor Galliano introduces a proprietary payments scorecard, ranking companies based on weighted metrics including valuation, margins, EBITDA growth and valuation-to-growth. PagSeguro and Nexi remain top picks due to deep value characteristics and strong scorecard rankings. PayPal is upgraded to Buy, replacing Visa, supported by improved margins, stabilising net take rate and attractive valuation. Affirm is upgraded to Neutral, while KakaoPay is newly rated Sell. The stock has surged on stablecoin speculation, but Victor warns of underestimated regulatory risks, especially following Bank of Korea’s recent caution on digital assets.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
High conviction financials for 2025
Financials
Galliano's Financials Research
Bradesco, Hana Financial and Bank of Baroda are Victor Galliano’s top picks amongst the GEM banks due to deep value with positive returns catalysts, while his sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging. In the Japanese banks, Victor identifies Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios. CME Group is his 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a "flow monster" with a very strong competitive position. PagSeguro is his deep value, contrarian pick in payments.
Edition: 201
- 13 December, 2024
Technology
The cheapest PayCo globally? The market remains hyper nervous on the Brazil Payment companies, but looking ahead to 2023 New Street thinks the ~8x 2023E PE multiple (with 2023-25E CAGR of ~40%) is too hard to ignore. Having sat on the side lines for most of last year they move to Buy with a TP of $17.00 (100% upside), taking a view that we are near enough at the end of the earnings downgrade cycle and assuming no significant change in the SELIC outlook. Their preferred LT pick exposed to this space remains MercadoLibre.
Edition: 151
- 06 January, 2023
Plenty of value in Payment companies
Technology
Galliano's Financials Research
Victor Galliano highlights PagSeguro for its attractive valuations vs. its Brazilian and global peer group. Getnet is also considered too cheap to ignore despite its challenging relationship with Santander. While Nexi is the only European payments company added to Victor’s buy list - negative sentiment as a result of poor execution on past acquisitions is more than well discounted in the share price. In the megacap names, Mastercard remains a key pick.
Edition: 132
- 01 April, 2022
FinTech & Financials: 2022 investment themes
Financials
Galliano's Financials Research
1. A shift into value in EM banks; cautious on digital banks - top picks are Sberbank, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank. Nubank likely to be one of the EM FinTech big negative surprises of 2022.
2. Southern Europe banks, position for the prospect of higher interest rates - highlights BBVA and Banco BPM.
3. Exchanges, competitive pressures are real, but are they priced in - B3 and Singapore Exchange standout.
4. Growth and value in digital payments - highlights Mastercard and, for its deep value, PagSeguro.
5. Digital wealth managers, picking a potential winner - BTG Pactual.
Edition: 126
- 07 January, 2022
LatAm Financials: Focus on the value opportunities
Financials
Galliano's Financials Research
Victor Galliano identifies the most attractive stocks based on value and GARP metrics. In Brazil, he highlights Banco do Brasil and Bradesco, but has recently turned cautious on Banco Inter. He continues to see further upside in Banorte (Mexico). Credicorp (Peru) is one to watch closely - most attractive PEG ratio among LatAm banks; plus investors have begun to cover short positions. Amongst the payment companies, Victor sees strong growth potential at PagSeguro. Within the wealth management sector he remains cautious re. XP's prospects due to eroding take rate and rising IFA costs.
Edition: 110
- 14 May, 2021