Nexperia dispute highlights Europe’s semiconductor dilemma

Technology

the IDEA!

The escalating dispute between the Dutch government, China and chipmaker Nexperia has become a flashpoint in the global semiconductor power struggle. With parent company Wingtech already on a US trade blacklist and facing tighter restrictions, Nexperia’s plan to separate its Chinese and European operations is now in jeopardy. The export ban poses an immediate risk to Europe’s industrial supply chain, especially in the automotive sector. Finding and certifying alternative suppliers could take months, echoing the chip shortages of 2021/22. Strategically, it spotlights the West’s push for technological sovereignty and the Netherlands’ pivotal role in the China–West tech decoupling. Several (Dutch) companies could be affected including ASML, NXP, Philips and ASM International.

- 17 October, 2025

SAP (SAP GR) Germany

Technology

Cerundolo Investment Research

Guy Cerundolo provides a basket of long ideas in Europe. These stocks have good and improving multi-factor model scores. In addition to SAP (see chart) he also highlights companies including ASM International, Assa Abloy, CRH, Ferrovial, Philips, Rolls-Royce and Tesco.

- 09 August, 2024

Philips (PHIA NA) Netherlands

Healthcare

Forensic Alpha

More accounting red flags - PHIA put through a massive €1.7bn of adjustments in FY23 to get from GAAP-based EBITA of €183m to Adjusted EBITA of €1,921m. Restructuring and acquisition-related charges totalled €381m and this figure has been increasing sharply over the last couple of years. The fact that this charge has occurred every year since 2015 should have investors questioning whether this can really be classified as a “one-off”. There has also been some unusually large movements in the Provisions Schedule as well as a decline in Accrued Customer Rebates, where manipulating supplier rebates is notorious as a tool for inflating earnings.

- 08 March, 2024

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam

the IDEA!

InPost (INPST) - Impressive 1H22 but best is yet to come. OOH solutions are consumer centric, environmentally friendly and above all cheap. In view of the Green Deal and ESG reporting which has become mandatory for a lot of InPost’s clients, minimising carbon footprint is becoming an increasingly important driver re. transformation of last mile delivery.
Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY) - Further job cuts announced (this time in Canada) as management continues to target improvements in the profitability of JET's various units. Positive stance maintained.
Philips (PHIA) - VEB demands €16bn in damages re. the apnoea affair. More claims to follow. Shares to remain under pressure.

- 16 September, 2022

Philips (PHIA NA) Netherlands

Healthcare

Forensic Alpha

Inventory levels should be closely monitored - sheer scale of increase in DSI is a cause for concern. As at 30 June, inventories stood at €4.2bn, equivalent to over 5 months of sales. This has increased from €3.5bn at the end of last year and contributed to a CFFO outflow of over €500m in H1. While the Q2 analyst presentation calls it a "risk mitigation" exercise; the Q2 report appears to present a different nuance, describing it as "work in progress" that cannot be translated into finished goods. This suggests a higher level of risk associated with the supply chain.

- 05 August, 2022