EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

PINFRA (PINFRA MM) Mexico

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Following the release of PINFRA’s FY23 results, Robert Crimes updates his long-term model forecasts - his price target of MX$343 offers nearly 100% upside. The investment case focuses on 1) An attractive mix of mature assets and newer developed assets ramping up. 2) High EM traffic growth (+2.9% CAGR in 2023-35E). 3) Strong returns in Mexican toll roads - EBITDA margins of 79.6% in 2023 (LT EBITDA growth of +6.0% CAGR in 2024-40E). Toll road opex is low and Robert estimates average construction costs per km of c.€7m, to be 1/3 of Europe but tolls per km of €0.07 only 1/3 less. 4) High IRR guarantees. 5) Rising dividend yield - from 3.1% in 2023 to 5.5% in 2025E and 13.0% in 2030E.

Edition: 185

- 03 May, 2024