Consumer Discretionary
Having successfully passed on significant price increases to its customers RL's earnings and cash flow have soared. However, macro concerns about the health of the luxury goods industry have weighed on the company’s valuation which now sits at nearly a 9% FCF Yield, cheaper than 90% of other large cap stocks. If the company could boost its gross margin to the traditional 70%+ range for a luxury retailer there could be significant upside ahead. Specifically, for each 100bp increase above its current 67.2% level, annual EPS would rise by ~$0.75. Using a modest 12x multiple, that would suggest that each 100bp boost in RL’s annual gross margin could cause a $9 increase in its share price. If the firm merely hit parity with peers that gives $27 of upside using what may turn out to be a very depressed multiple.
Edition: 196
- 04 October, 2024
There are two lanes in retail winning right now - momentum and improvement
Consumer Discretionary
Brands with good momentum include Lululemon, Abercrombie, Chico’s, Steve Madden, LVMH, Prada, Ralph Lauren and Macy’s. According to The Retail Tracker, these retailers are entering the back half of the year with the consumer on their side and good assortments. In the improvement lane, they highlight Gap, Target, American Eagle, Bath & Body Works and Nike. They also like the risk:reward in two currently out of favour names - Williams-Sonoma (a high-quality company, with exceptional brands / leadership) and Victoria's Secret (left for dead / trades at a steep discount).
Edition: 166
- 04 August, 2023
Around the Stores: Providing weekly insights into merchandising, promotions and sales trends…
Consumer Discretionary
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) - Lacked inventory, energy, and sales help. Heard story after story about disappointed college shoppers.
Torrid Holdings (CURV) - Very under the radar. Website looks amazing with denim balanced with wear to work, dates and dresses.
Ralph Lauren (RL) - Very strong all around. Polo store looks outstanding and the Polo men’s assortments at Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s fantastic. Also found the Lauren sets in apparel and handbags in Macy's significantly improved.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) - Kors has some good new styles that break out of the logo story. Stores are cleaner promotionally than they have been. Versace was still very busy and is trending.
Edition: 144
- 16 September, 2022
Decoding the Financial World: 10Q/10K text analysis
Utilising AI, NLP, data analytics and qualitative analyst oversight, 280First can rapidly glean material / actionable insights on companies.
Qorvo (QRVO) - Concerns about large customers. The following wording was added to its risk factor in 10K 2022 “The loss of one or more of these customers could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations”.
HP Inc (HPQ) - Pricing issues. Changed wording in 2Q 10Q vs. prior quarter; “We expect the pricing environment to get more competitive”.
Cavco Industries (CVCO) - Seeing early signs of increasing cancellations?
Ralph Lauren (RL) - Worried about increasing prices and its impact on demand.
Edition: 138
- 24 June, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Following a strong 4Q22 report and despite global macro headwinds / FX pressure, the company is poised to deliver +HSD F23CC revenue and $8.25 to $8.50 F22 EPS - JJK's bullish view is driven by positive new customer acquisition and tailwinds in the recovery categories of classic wear to work and special occasion apparel / accessories. Forecasts +HSD revenue in North America and Europe while APAC is tracking at +LDD, with F23 EBIT margins poised to reach the F24 mid-teens goal. Investors should also expect an acceleration in share repurchases / dividends with RL's $2.5bn cash hoard set to increase further, driving total shareholder returns higher.
Edition: 136
- 27 May, 2022
These retailers are primed for growth in 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer stocks are climbing the wall of worry reflecting supply chain challenges, higher distribution expense, rising prices and tough comps. Hence, there is limited visibility on the consumer sector delivering yoy F22 earnings gains. JJK highlight a select few who are well positioned for growth, including the value focused off-price retailers (TJX, Burlington, Ross) and beauty leaders (Bath & Body Works, Estee Lauder, Ulta). Upgraded growth strategies and Europe’s emerging rebound should also drive strong upside at A&F, Capri Holdings, Lululemon, PVH, Ralph Lauren and Victoria’s Secret.
Edition: 120
- 01 October, 2021
Apparel Retailers: Store Checks, Promotional Summaries & Key Data Points
Consumer Discretionary
LVMH - less enthusiastic when it comes to pre-Fall product, perhaps too much use of animal prints on classic shapes? Also wondering if the move back to smaller cross body bags creates a lower AUR mix shift for the industry.
Hugo Boss - summer sale tells the story. According to SW Retail’s proprietary data ~60% of total SKUs are on discount this season (US 63%, UK 58%, Germany 58%) vs. 27% for Ralph Lauren and 36% for Tommy Hilfiger.
Burberry - finally serious about promotions being a thing of the past. Recent price increases (Mid to HSD %) have gone largely unnoticed, but handbags continue to disappoint vs. competitors (lack of bright colours).
Edition: 114
- 09 July, 2021