EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Timber REITs: Timberland holds its value in uncertain times

Real Estate

ERA Research

Timber REITs remain undervalued despite trade policy turmoil, expectations for flat US housing starts and falling consumer confidence. Tailwinds for the year ahead include steady timberland valuations and strong comp sales data, continuing investor interest in US timberland and carbon solutions, and potential increased US wood products manufacturing due to escalating duties (and possible tariffs) on Canadian imports. ERA rates all 3 REITs Outperform, valuing them using a NAV method for land assets and a market-based approach for manufacturing assets. Rayonier and Weyerhaeuser both have target prices of $36, offering ~30% upside, while PotlatchDeltic's TP of $50, offers 25% upside.

Edition: 209

- 18 April, 2025

Pulp prices to remain strong in coming months

ERA Research

Pulp exports from Russia’s large forest resource mainly head towards China, therefore Western sanctions will see little direct impact on pulp prices. Nevertheless, ERA Research expects pulp prices to remain stronger for longer in the face of logistical issues that will present themselves, with early-year strength continuing for longer before excess inventories are finally delivered. Recommended trades include LONG Mercer, with another quarter of low maintenance and good shipments expected (TP $16). Despite the strong pulp outlook, investors should EXIT Rayonier Advanced Materials with a heavy maintenance year ahead a key risk.

Edition: 130

- 04 March, 2022

Russian log and lumber export changes to impact China suppliers in 2022

ERA Research

Russia confirms it will implement a ban on softwood and high-value hardwood log exports from January 1st, 2022 - this will have a meaningful impact on global markets, particularly China, given that China remains heavily leveraged to solid-wood imports from Russia. Analysts at ERA explain why they believe US log exporters will be the biggest beneficiaries, highlighting the potential for price and volume gains for both Rayonier and Weyerhaeuser next year.

Edition: 125

- 10 December, 2021