Bios scores big on 89bio, rotates to new opportunities
Healthcare
Bios Research’s long call on 89bio has paid off handsomely: since turning bullish in Apr 25, the shares have climbed ~120%, culminating in Roche’s announced takeover at $14.50/share plus a $6 CVR. With conviction now removed, Bios suggests rotating into SMID-cap biotech to capture what they see as the early stages of a new bull cycle. On the short side, the team has just launched a new idea with 30-50% expected downside over the next 6 months. Their track record is strong: 15 of 22 shorts over the past 18 months have generated absolute returns (~72% alpha-adjusted hit rate), with notable successful conviction removals including Apellis, Butterfly Network, Geron and Inspire Medical.
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
QT vs QE: The nature of asymmetry
The reduction in central bank balance sheets is not reducing liquidity in any way that matters to financial markets. David Roche explores the two reasons: The “Fire Brigade syndrome”, which makes QE and QT asymmetrical and is related to human behaviour; and the new central bank operating frameworks, which he examines in his latest report. Central banks will see their economic footprint vary according to which operating system they choose! The Fed’s choice spells greater involvement in sovereign debt markets than say the ECB, which coincides with booming fiscal debts and deficits. A question is the extent to which the “Abundant Reserve” operating system chosen by the Fed will lead to de facto monetisation that might cause the USD to lose some of its reserve currency advantages.
Edition: 187
- 31 May, 2024
Japan and the yen: Beware idle days in April
David Roche thinks Japanese authorities are close to the point where they must intervene to halt the yen’s downward spiral. Everyone is short. The yen remains the cheapest currency in the world and the market believes a more radical tightening of monetary policy would change that. David’s technical charts point to 160Y to the USD if the yen breaks the Y151/USD barrier. The downward spiral risks undermining BoJ strategy, hitting consumer income through high import prices and incentivising saving. Currency intervention and another rate hike are the likely tools.
Edition: 183
- 05 April, 2024
Has the ECB killed the golden goose?
If the Fed has a new paradigm of low inflation and sustained growth, Europe has discovered low inflation and no growth. The result is a structurally weak Euro. David Roche is now SHORT again. Among his secular themes in his February report, central banks figured largely. The report analysed why the Fed may benefit from a new paradigm. That is sustained growth and low(ish) inflation without incurring a recession or massive layoffs. If so, that would be due to a new relationship between job openings and unemployment. In short, job openings and wage increases could fall in tandem without a massive rise in unemployment. That would avoid hitting household income and risking a recession. And for the nerds, it put a kink in the Beveridge Curve and killed the Phillips Curve dead.
Edition: 181
- 08 March, 2024
Infineon Technologies (IFX GR) Germany
Technology
ROCGA’s cash-flow-returns-on-investments based online platform provides a systematic framework to compare, value and gain insight into companies. IFX is on a list of undervalued companies, along with others, including Roche and Kering. Apart from their proprietary economic returns and conventional valuation indicators, data points such as EV/IC against ROIC/WACC are also available. Their interactive tools allow you to model and value one of 2000 companies across Europe and the US. A free consultation and trial can be arranged on request.
Edition: 181
- 08 March, 2024
Plenty of value on offer in Big Pharma
Healthcare
The sharp fall in the median implied to Y3 EBITM ratio for Willis Welby’s Healthcare coverage is all about Pharma. This leaves a median ratio for the subsector of just 94 which gets you good financial productivity, neutral revisions and a median consensus Y3 revenue growth rate of 7.4%. While the share price of Novo Nordisk discounts a lot of success, at the other end of the scale there are some companies where ratios seem to be getting more cautious without much obvious justification. GSK and Sanofi’s share prices are both consistent with a catastrophic future which makes no sense. Roche is not far behind. Given the normal dislocation of Pharma dynamics from wider economic ones this also looks like a major opportunity from a risk management perspective as well as from a value perspective.
Edition: 173
- 10 November, 2023
Bayer (BAYN GR) Germany
Healthcare
Evidence suggests new CEO Bill Anderson will use R&D, M&A and transformation to grow earnings - Paragon interviewed former colleagues who worked with Anderson at Genentech and Roche for over 75 years combined. Sources were unanimously positive, citing his knowledge, leadership abilities, management style and ability to drive results at both companies. Following his appointment, all but one source would consider investing in BAYN with the one hold out citing concerns about the cultural differences between a traditional German company and a new CEO with an informal, “Californian” management style.
Edition: 164
- 07 July, 2023
ECB: Backwards to the future
The justification for the ECB’s recent rate hike was Lagarde economics, which David Roche criticises, explaining how the ECB and US Fed will ignore its stability mandate and pursue monetary policy until the economic machine busts. This should be seen in the context of central banks seeking to re-establish their credibility after their systemic failure to control inflation – which they helped generate. It’s all denial economics. In a world rotten with excess leverage, unrelentingly increasing the cost of it will cause the system to crack. Expect the ECB to reduce rates in a few months.
Edition: 156
- 17 March, 2023
Japan: Appointments point to reform of the BoJ
The yen is David Roche’s biggest currency long. JGBs are his biggest sovereign bond short. Japanese banks are one of the few equity sectors (along with global energy) that David thinks have fundamental value, and recent news of likely appointments at the BoJ confirm these portfolio positions. If anything, investors should add to them. We will see the end of Yield Curve Control (YCC) and Kuroda’s hyper-lax monetary policy in an economy with cash wages rising faster than in decades and core inflation that has doubled since April. Of course, the policy plateshifts will happen in stages, as all things in a well-orchestrated tea party do, but they will happen, nevertheless.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
Gas and LNG: The cawing of crows
Last year, investors who went short on EU gas and global LNG made a wise decision. However, with the crows once again cawing, David Roche reckons it may be time to go long on both. Global oil supply is predicted to fall, with the price of Brent crude oil reaching USD140/bbl in 2024. Russia is being forced to cut production, Europe’s natural gas inventories are falling and LNG storage is down to 45%. The crows would see the fall in EU gas prices as food for optimistic cawing and prognostications, but David remains doubtful that a zero-productivity growth economy with big government, big deficits and swathes of social protection can sustain low inflation for more than the flickering of an historical eye.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
Step on the gas
David Roche believes the coming year will see strong demand for oil as the world economy avoids recession and China recovers some of its shine, with the country’s oil demand likely to increase to 15-18mbd. On the supply side, underinvestment in fossil fuels and governments’ poor abilities to deliver on renewable alternatives will result in a decade-long supply shortage. Combined with the end of the shale bonanza and Russian sanctions, we will see oil price likely to get to USD $120/bbl by mid-2023 and average USD $140/bbl in 2024. This makes oil stocks very attractive in terms of valuation, cash flow and leverage.
Edition: 153
- 03 February, 2023
Oil to boil
Russia will disrupt the oil market rather than sell below caps, especially since Putin sees this as one of his key escalation weapons. The global tanker constraint will stop Russia shipping meaningfully more oil to Dark Markets and EMs. India and China don’t want more Russian oil dependence, so Russia will shut down capacity. We will see global supply shrink, but not demand. And do not expect help from OPEC. David Roche is adding LONG oil to his portfolio.
Edition: 148
- 11 November, 2022
Global Strategy – UK: In Truss no trust
David Roche isadding to their short gilts position. The UK current account is now running at a deficit of nearly 8% of GDP while UK sovereign debt/GDP is 100%. These figures are not quite at crisis level but the reckless policy could force us there. The impact of Truss’ fiscal policy will be of long duration and will hit investment and productivity. What this policy is doing wrong is to add demand to a supply-constrained, low-productivity economy, while creating destabilising social inequality. Rising inflation and recession with the BoE bound to raise its policy rate is a policy cocktail in hell.
Edition: 145
- 30 September, 2022
The China conundrum
China’s debt problems persist and are increasingly evident in the housing market, explains David Roche. While he doesn’t see immediate economic collapse occurring, it highlights the growing list of threats to the country’s medium-term growth path. The country’s housing market and the associated local government and developers are the rotten core of the crisis, and the initiatives taken so far to solve the problem are simply not enough. He remains out of Chinese equities and SHORT the renminbi against the USD.
Edition: 143
- 02 September, 2022
Screening UK & Europe: Combining quality, momentum and expectations indicators
Methodology - the initial universes are stocks with $2bn+ M/Cap in the UK and $5.5bn+ across Europe. After that Willis Welby starts with a quality cut off based on their measure of Intrinsic Return on Capital Employed. They then narrow down using a combination of share price momentum and EBIT revisions before incorporating their expectations analysis via their measure of the implied to Y3 EBITM ratio. This month sees 6 stocks enter the UK screen (including Rio Tinto, Flutter, Renishaw) and 17 names added to the European version (including Nestle, Hapag-Lloyd, Roche, Vestas, Aker).
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022
Agro commodities provide a hedge against tightening liquidity
Commodities remain a good hedge in the current macro environment, claims David Roche. Food security remains an increasing problem and, although consumer demand may suffer from falling average disposable incomes, food demand remains relatively inelastic. The risk to prices is if supply blockages in grain suddenly loosen, but grain storage and logistics remain pressured and the increased restrictions on the export of agro commodities by many countries are strangling supply. David maintains his LONGs in grains and cotton.
Edition: 138
- 24 June, 2022
For a handful of dollars
Diminishing the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will be gradual, believes David Roche. Autocracies will accelerate their efforts to escape the dollar system following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but doing so is not easy. For the moment, the USD will benefit from the Fed’s tightening policy and its position as a safe haven; David Roche is staying LONG the US dollar versus the euro and yen. In the long run it will inevitably weaken, and investors should be prepared.
Edition: 132
- 01 April, 2022
Agro-commodities
The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture reaffirms David Roche’s LONG position in wheat and other grains, which he has held during the pandemic. He has also been LONG cotton as a key agro-commodity in short supply. David reckons there is further upside in food prices to come as demand rises, supply chains falter and global grain stocks fall. More immediately, grains also provide a hedge against a Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions that will follow.
Edition: 129
- 18 February, 2022
Death of demand doesn’t mean death of Japan
Japan is an oddity. It suffered from the pandemic but none of the residual problems seen elsewhere have taken hold in the aftermath. Despite unfixable structural issues, David Roche is bullish Japanese equities, which will benefit from the economic backdrop and will be bolstered by a weaker yen – expect yen/equity correlation to reassert itself and go LONG Nikkei. David also remains SHORT yen vs USD and SGD.
Edition: 127
- 21 January, 2022
US Dollar to hold its attractiveness amidst EM instability
David Roche believes China turning inwards leaves emerging economies without international trade as a growth engine. Most lack the critical mass of China to drive growth domestically. Latin America politically is also designing itself into another lost decade. Russia is a kleptocracy bent on war and is economically set to lose by it. While Turkey is ruled by a madman. Global growth is set to plummet and with it being impossible for Europe or Japan to fill the growth vacuum, David maintains that investors should still be long the US dollar, but it will become highly volatile.
Edition: 126
- 07 January, 2022
Metals: The new Princes of Power
The electrification of the planet in the face of declining fossil fuel usage will result in a massive increase in the metals that contain and conduct that power. Copper is king and David Roche is already long the red metal, but the new princes of power will be cobalt, lithium and rare earth minerals, which investors should take out LONG positions on. The era of fossil fuels is coming to an end, get prepared.
Edition: 124
- 26 November, 2021
Pharma ESG: A sector specialist’s view
Intron Health Research’s latest report shows clear evidence that typical Pharma ESG ratings bear little resemblance to mid-term share price performance. They have therefore designed an ESG framework unique to the industry; governance is at the forefront of the model whilst social factors have a lower weighting. They show that AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk fare the best, and GlaxoSmithKline and Roche fare worst.
Edition: 119
- 17 September, 2021
US: Afghanistan matters
David Roche believes the recent Afghan disaster is likely to mark the start of the collapse of Biden’s credibility. We may have to wait for the democrat’s fiscal nonsense and the fed’s denial of inflation to finish the job. China and Russia will seek to profit from the US’ loss of credibility. Start by ending strong USD positions, short US Treasuries and be wary of equities globally. For safety, buy the NOK.
Edition: 117
- 20 August, 2021
Overwhelming Valuation Case for Large Cap Pharma
Healthcare
Pharmaceutical stocks are significantly cheaper than Consumer Staples (which look expensive and vulnerable) and should form part of the defensive ends of portfolios - half of Willis Welby’s Pharma coverage comes in with implied to Y3 EBITM ratios that are less than 100 and these ratios exclude the imponderable benefit of new science and consequently numbers are MUCH MORE conservative. Top picks: GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Roche and Novartis.
Edition: 117
- 20 August, 2021
Be very cautious about Chinese equities
There are two key variables to consider when investing in Chinese assets. First, the change in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policy, with its invigorated emphasis on national and international goals. Second, the inevitable decline in the economy’s expansion, to a 5-6% growth rate — a trend that was hidden by the saw tooth recovery from Covid that China experienced first. Together with the structural problems of over-leverage and malinvestment, David Roche is very cautious about Chinese equities, neutral on the currency and debt.
Edition: 116
- 06 August, 2021
Eurozone vs US: The tortoise and the hare
Headline data suggests that the US has recovered from the pandemic much better than the Eurozone. Such data is misleading and can be attributed to policy response; in reality, the EZ has a strong recovery story with less volatility than the US. David Roche believes the Fed is underestimating risks – catching up to them will be positive for USD. Investors should remain short EUR vs USD, overweight EZ equities and short Bunds and BTP’s.
Edition: 114
- 09 July, 2021
Roche (ROG SW) Switzerland
Healthcare
Intron downgrades the stock to Sell - based on ROG's increasingly gloomy biosimilar outlook, high likelihood of EBIT downgrades next year, collapse of its pipeline and absence of any emerging blockbusters. TP CHF280 - implies ROG trades on 14.3x in 2022 - a 7% discount to the sector. This is more than justified given its 0% EPS growth this year and just 2% next year. It is the slowest growing Pharma name (ex-GlaxoSmithKline) on a 5-year view.
Edition: 109
- 30 April, 2021