Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
Company Research
Prysmian (PRY IM) Italy
Industrials
Guy Cerundolo highlights 10 European long ideas scored and ranked using his multi-factor technical model. These stocks have good absolute and relative structure and either emerged or are starting to emerge from consolidation patterns from which he sees further upside. In addition to PRY (see chart), other companies highlighted include Inditex, MTU Aero Engines, Pandora, Rolls-Royce and Schneider Electric.
Edition: 195
- 20 September, 2024
SAP (SAP GR) Germany
Technology
Guy Cerundolo provides a basket of long ideas in Europe. These stocks have good and improving multi-factor model scores. In addition to SAP (see chart) he also highlights companies including ASM International, Assa Abloy, CRH, Ferrovial, Philips, Rolls-Royce and Tesco.
Edition: 192
- 09 August, 2024
Industrials
Angela Strank (Non-Executive since 2020) buys £70,000 of stock at £2.69, increasing her stake by 60%. She has made a series of purchases into rising prices since her first buy at £1.44 in Oct 2021 and it's notable to see her now make her largest purchase post strength. It is also her largest purchase across her Director roles at Mondi, Severn Trent and SSE. Stuart Bradie (Non-Executive since May 2023) recently bought £248,000 of stock in his first purchase since joining in 2023. Smart Insider ranks the stock +1 (highest rating).
Edition: 175
- 08 December, 2023
SAP (SAP GR) Germany
Technology
SAP is guiding for cloud revenues to reach €14.1bn (+25% Y/Y) in FY23, suggesting growth will be far stronger in H2 vs. H1, in total contradiction with the current economic slowdown and competitors’ recent comments. Pierre-Olivier Essig struggles to share management’s bullishness which has led to him downgrading the stock to Sell (from Buy). His new TP is €100 (previously €140).
AIR continues to boast an enviable track record with impressive gains on Buy-rated stocks including Aixtron, Meier Tobler, Novo Nordisk and Rolls-Royce, as well as shorts including Fresenius Medical Care and Grifols.
Edition: 171
- 13 October, 2023
Nexans (NEX FP) France
Industrials
Sean Maher adds NEX his green grid infrastructure basket (includes Rolls-Royce, Cummins, Ming Yang) after unjustified YTD weakness on a 14x PER, a 3-point discount to Italian rival Prysmian. Sean highlights NEX’s recent agreement with TenneT (largest in its history) and successful testing of the first 525 kV DC cable which enables a substantial increase in transmission capacity. Furthermore, as digital decoupling from China extends to subsea data infrastructure, what was already a very strong growth market driven by international data volumes in providing highly sophisticated multi-layer cables now has a further tailwind from national security led duplication and redundancy.
Edition: 163
- 23 June, 2023
Industrials
The stock is up more than 60% since Sean Maher added it to his energy transition basket (+240% since inception in 2019) towards the end of last year as both a power generation capex / China reopening play. RR's strong FY results come ahead of a sweeping restructuring from H2 to boost margins and ROE under its new CEO. Results showed an improvement in its civil aerospace and power systems divisions which is likely to accelerate over the next couple of years while crucially the highly indebted company generated £505m of FCF - smashing analyst expectations and buying time for the new far more commercial business strategy and inevitable recapitalisation to bear fruit.
Edition: 155
- 03 March, 2023
Industrials - Aerospace and Defence
Rolls-Royce has been a "frequent flyer" at the top of Forensic Alpha’s high-risk list. With the publication of H1 results last month, they picked up even more new working capital flags which has pushed the company back up to the maximum "10" risk rating. The increase in DSI (Days Sales Inventory) was one of the most striking movements, given it came off levels which were already elevated. The movement also appears to be much greater than observed for peers in the Aerospace and Defence sector.
Edition: 145
- 30 September, 2022