EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

SABIC (SABIC AB) Saudi Arabia

Materials

AlphaMena

After a larger-than-expected Q4 loss, AlphaMena significantly lowers their earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026, revising their EPS forecasts to SAR 0.78 and SAR 1.67, respectively. While SABIC boasts a healthy balance sheet and has maintained its FCF at a high level, even in difficult times, AlphaMena expects pressure to persist on the chemicals industry with weak demand and high input costs, leading to lower prices and squeezed margins. So, overcapacity will continue to be a challenge, especially for polymers. Given the near-term challenges facing the company, they are waiting for a further pullback in the share price (up to 10%) to provide a more attractive entry point.

Edition: 207

- 21 March, 2025


MENA Chemicals: Earnings misses anticipated

Materials

Alembic Global Advisors

Relatively weak MENA chemical sector share price performance has resulted from a compression in margins on the back of relatively weak product pricing and higher feedstock costs coupled with investor skittishness around the prospects of a recession across several geographies. Hassan Ahmed’s analysis suggests Street expectations for 3Q23 are too high and has lowered his 2023 and 2024 earnings estimates for all seven MENA names that he covers. SABIC is his top pick, as Hassan believes it offers the best blend of earnings resilience and below-sector average valuation.

Edition: 171

- 13 October, 2023