AI: Scepticism’s turn
The last week has seen AI sceptics jumping up and down about a coming crash, but Richard Windsor sees them citing data that is misleading. One reason was the MIT study, which claimed that 95% of AI projects failed to yield benefits, but the report also said that great benefits can come when such projects are implemented correctly. So, the sceptics may be wrong, but not nearly as wrong as those who believe superintelligent machines are soon to be among us. Richard sees the idea of $200bn/yr in revenue for OpenAI by 2030 as preposterous, and sees a correction coming, but it won’t be a crash on the scale as the AI sceptics claim. Hyper valued companies burning through money will get into real trouble, but the picks and shovels like Nvidia, Nebius, Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung and Qualcomm and so on are likely to continue to do well. Richard continues to hold the latter two.
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
Technology
Despite a solid Q3 beat and raise, MU shares fell on misplaced concerns over HBM oversupply. Arete sees strong FY26 growth, with HBM projected to reach ~40% of DRAM sales by late 2026, reinforcing MU’s status as an essential yet still undervalued AI stock. Nvidia continues to request additional HBM and potential resumption of H20E (with HBM3E-8Hi) sales could act as a catalyst for further global supply tightening. MU must demonstrate HBM4 competitiveness (16-layer stacking capability) within 6-8 months to ease investor concerns. Arete also expects MU to gain eSSD market share at the expense of Samsung and SK Hynix. A combination of stable traditional DRAM pricing and rising HBM mix to drive a 63% Y/Y rise in FY26 EPS to $12.78. TP increased to $150 (35% upside).
Edition: 216
- 25 July, 2025
Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Extreme stocks
In this report, Steven Holden screens for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges. He synthesises current and historical data on fund positioning with recent manager activity to accurately assess sentiment for each stock within Copley’s coverage. Stocks highlighted include Phoenix Mills and SK Hynix (High Positioning, Positive Momentum); AIA Group and Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (High Positioning, Negative Momentum); PT Avia Avian and Wuxi Biologics (Low Positioning, Negative Momentum); New Oriental Education & Technology Group and Shinhan Financial Group (Low Positioning, Positive Momentum).
Edition: 192
- 09 August, 2024
Semis & Hardware: Real-Time Views
Technology
Arete’s monthly newsletter covers the latest updates in the global tech hardware and semis markets, with a particular emphasis on foundry, memory, compute, semi-cap, wireless semis, and EV/autos. Highlights from their Nov edition include: 1) Dramatic shift in memory - Q4 price surge signals shift from a buyers’ to a sellers’ market. 2) HBM market dynamics - is AMD diversifying its HBM supplier base with new SK Hynix deal? 3) Why Huawei looks set for a bumper 2024 and US sanctions backfire. 4) Why Apple’s spend at TSMC might be flat in 2024, curbing TSMC recovery. 5) Auto semis - content is king in 2024. 6) Lithium-ion battery outlook - all-time-high earnings amid all-time-low valuations. 7) To infinity and beyond - satellite semis growth in the 2020s.
Edition: 174
- 24 November, 2023
SK Hynix (000660 KS), Wiwynn (6669 TT), Carrier (CARR US) US
Technology / Industrials
Sean Maher takes a 110% profit on Japan's Advantest in his semi basket after the Nvidia inspired surge, but still thinks SK Hynix remains undervalued and the key high bandwidth memory play as AI inference explodes. Sean has added Taiwan’s server maker Wiwynn to his networking basket as a key play on booming demand through end decade for its lower power consumption / heat generation technologies in AI server clusters. Climate change and the energy transition also remain key themes, driving secular AC and heat pump demand; Carrier has been added to his transition basket on its M&A reinvention as a HVAC / heat pump pure play.
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Technology
Improving global market positioning whilst still trading at a discount to peers - SK Hynix trades on a 7.2x forward PE ratio despite commanding a strong position in the DRAM market and gaining significant market share in NAND over the last year (surpassing Western Digital, whilst Micron and Intel have also lagged). Following the completion of the first phase of its Intel NAND acquisition, SK Hynix should be the #2 manufacturer globally, edging out Kioxia (in which SK Hynix owns a 15% stake). Given the strong pricing environment Wium Malan believes consensus forecasts look very conservative.
Edition: 130
- 04 March, 2022