EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

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Company Research

Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) France

Industrials

Iron Blue Financials

Following publication of its FY24 registration document, Iron Blue increases their SGO score to 27/60 (newly top quartile). This principally reflects FY24’s P&L benefit from compression in the expense for inventory and bad debtor impairment provisions, which could provide a tough comp effect in FY25. They also note two new contingent liabilities related to a new Grenfell Tower claim brought against SGO subsidiaries as well as assumed Australia asbestos liabilities with FY24’s CSR acquisition. For the first time the FY24 annual report quantified SGO’s reverse factoring activities (€106m). Iron Blue continues to flag sustained stripped out costs and an elevated gap between PPE capex and the P&L depreciation charge.

Edition: 223

- 31 October, 2025


Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) France

Industrials

Iron Blue Financials

SGO’s Iron Blue score increases to 26/60 (newly top quartile / fertile grounds for shorting). This reflects an expanded gap between PPE capex and the P&L depreciation charge (14% of PBT adj, vs. 11% and 7% the two previous years) and another increase in receivables factoring (+6% y/y, +40% since FY20). Stripped out one-off costs remained elevated (10% of FY23 PBT adj). A new contingent liability was named in FY23 concerning competition authority investigations into the additives and admixtures sector in the EU, UK and Turkey, while class actions were instituted in the US and Canada. SGO has also continued to consolidate its Russian operations despite seemingly operating independently from the rest of the group. Iron Blue calculates that €112m of gross cash was stranded in Russia.

Edition: 183

- 05 April, 2024


Bayer (BAYN GR) Germany

Healthcare

ROCGA Research

ROCGA’s Cash Flow Returns On Investments based DCF valuation platform shows BAYN to be undervalued for the first time in 10 years. BAYN is not a quality company and would not warrant attention, but the valuation gap is compelling with potentially 50% upside. With a few clicks, you can model and value one of 2000 companies across Europe and the US. Other companies that appear on their list of undervalued companies are Ahold, Associated British Foods and Saint-Gobain. A free consultation and trial can be arranged on request.

Edition: 176

- 22 December, 2023