EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Technology Spending Intentions Survey: Tracking tech budget trends & vendor demand

Technology

ETR

ETR’s Jan TSIS, based on responses from 1,835 tech leaders, projects 5.3% Y/Y IT spending growth in 2025, the highest since Jul 22. 73% of organisations plan budget increases, driven by cloud expansion and project acceleration. Notably, only 6% cited new vendor adoption, while 12% focused on enhancing capabilities with existing vendors - reinforcing debates around platformisation vs. vendor sprawl. TSIS tracks hundreds of companies and each quarter ETR publishes 200+ vendor specific reports. In their most recent webinar, they highlighted 20 vendors including AWS, Google, Salesforce, Snowflake, Workday and Zscaler - 13 had positive outlooks, 2 were downgraded and 3 maintained their outlook.

Edition: 205

- 21 February, 2025


Tech: AI innovations, market disruptions and emerging opportunities

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

The themes SPR will be focusing on in 2025 include 1) AI related: (a) AI applications move to the edge - benefitting the likes of Ciena, Arista and Crown Castle. (b) AI networking transition to ethernet vs. InfiniBand, benefitting Arista, Cisco, Juniper and Extreme. (c) AI use cases that are delivering strong ROI vs. others that are not, despite strong sales efforts by vendors - impacting renewals for Salesforce, ServiceNow, and others. 2) In cyber security, areas of growing priority include SOC automation and Next Generation SIEM. 3) More vendors bypass distribution and sell via the CSP marketplace or direct, negatively impacting large distributors. 4) BEAD - despite delays, this program will drive meaningful revenue. 5) Vendors benefitting from the rapid growth in DevOps / DevSecOp.

Edition: 202

- 10 January, 2025


Technology Spending Intentions Survey

ETR

ETR’s July 24 TSIS saw participation from 1768 IT Decision-Makers, including 293 Fortune 500 and 419 Global 2000 organisations. Highlighted vendors include:

Equinix (EQIX) - rising sector and vendor-level spending intent places EQIX in a dominant position among peers, as the vendor seems well-aligned with broader IT spending and ML/AI trends, warranting ETR’s first-ever positive outlook on the data set.
Salesforce (CRM) - souring spend intent for its core Enterprise Apps business, in tandem with overall Net Score in Cloud Computing registering sharp declines, warrants a negative outlook.
Varonis (VRNS) - Negative outlook. ETR has observed a clear declining trend in spending intentions for two years, with an even lower Net Score among the Global 2000 and a sharp rise in Replacement intentions among existing customers.

Edition: 191

- 26 July, 2024


10Q / 10K filings analysis

280First

Utilising AI, NLP, data analytics and qualitative analyst oversight, 280First can rapidly glean material / actionable insights from a company's financial reports. Recent alerts include: 1) Assured Guaranty - caution on liquidity claims; colour on impact from downgrade of financial strength. 2) Burlington - more positive views on comparable store sales. 3) Dollar Tree - may need to lower prices to remain competitive. 4) Keysight Technologies - seeing order cancellations? 5) Mattel - no longer focused on advancing e-Commerce and DTC business. 6) Salesforce - rethinking level of additional growth opportunities.

Edition: 183

- 05 April, 2024


SAP (SAP GR) Germany

Technology

Arete Research

SAP got a lift this week after announcing tough action to meet its FY25 profit goals. However, while Arete applauds the company’s efforts they struggle to get too excited. Restructurings of this magnitude are not without risk. It is also notable that SAP beat its FY23 targets on licences but scraped home at the bottom end of the range for Cloud growth. The stock is already trading on 23x FY25 FCF if it hits these goals. Arete would rather own Salesforce which trades at a similar valuation but is a much better asset.

Edition: 178

- 26 January, 2024


Connectivity, speed & scale combine to blow up IT as we know it

Technology

Blueshift Research

In John Harrington’s latest Tech Trends report, he looks at several factors that have combined to change IT development and sales dynamics. These include how the accelerating deployment of speedier wired and wireless connectivity to the cloud, very fast computing platforms being built at scale within the clouds, the accelerating development of quantum computing as a viable commercial business, and the development of serious AI capabilities are affecting the global digital landscape. As IT increasingly transitions from in-house networking to the cloud, some new areas of IT will benefit, while others face an uncertain future.

Positive: Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Broadcom, Ciena, Dycom, Intel, IonQ, Microsoft, Nvidia, Rigetti.
Negative: C3.ai, Cisco, Dell, Qualcomm, Salesforce.

Edition: 162

- 09 June, 2023


IT Spending & Cyber Security

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

As always, SPR will be tracking the trajectory of IT spending, changing priorities and competitive dynamics for the segments and vendors they follow. Key questions / themes for 2023 include: IT Spending: 1) Which vendors are seeing more than anticipated pressure from reduction in seats and end user efforts to contain costs? 2) Vendors benefitting from the rapid growth in DevOps / DevSecOps. Cyber Security: 3) Which vendors are executing well with XDR solutions, capturing share and potentially disrupting existing vendors? 4) Maturing of the End Point Protection market. 5) Growth for Zero Trust Network Architectures. Additional Themes: 6) Vendors successfully leveraging AI / ML. 7) M&A speculation.

Positive views include: Palo Alto, Cyberark, Five9, Snowflake, Ciena, Datadog. Cautious: ServiceNow, Salesforce, Tenable.

Edition: 151

- 06 January, 2023


Corcept Therapeutics (CORT)

Healthcare

Favus Institutional Research

Elliot Favus sees CORT being forced to “wind down” over the coming months - his earlier research revealed how the company's salesforce was paying doctors (who had no business receiving any money) substantial amounts to prescribe its drug for treatment outside of the exceedingly rare medical condition for which it is approved. Since then a Federal criminal investigation has begun, but Elliot believes the Street is misreading the nature of the investigation - he expects the prescribers who have been “bribed” to be targeted, and once this happens, CORT’s prescriber base will rapidly disappear along with its revenues.

Edition: 150

- 09 December, 2022