Banks vs. Tariffs
Financials
TriggerPoint Research is increasingly confident that the SX7P’s 54-month streak of uninterrupted outperformance is well and truly over as macro uncertainty mounts. While the impact of nascent tariff wars on inflation, interest rate policies, trade and by-country GDP is impossible to forecast accurately, one thing is certain: the outlook has dimmed significantly. TriggerPoint’s analysis draws on excerpts from ECB stress test publications to assess how changing macro conditions impact bank credit charges and earnings outlooks, while their report also explores how to approach bank valuation in an environment where earnings visibility disappears and capital return plans face growing uncertainty. Three banks are used as case studies: Barclays, HSBC and Santander.
Edition: 209
- 18 April, 2025
Plenty of value in Payment companies
Technology
Galliano's Financials Research
Victor Galliano highlights PagSeguro for its attractive valuations vs. its Brazilian and global peer group. Getnet is also considered too cheap to ignore despite its challenging relationship with Santander. While Nexi is the only European payments company added to Victor’s buy list - negative sentiment as a result of poor execution on past acquisitions is more than well discounted in the share price. In the megacap names, Mastercard remains a key pick.
Edition: 132
- 01 April, 2022
Creation of Net New NPLs: 700 Banks analysed
Financials
Paul Hollingworth reveals that of the large EM banks, Itau Unibanco and Santander Brasil are producing a prodigious quantity of NNNPLs relative to their Equity. Of the large global systemic banks, Banco Santander stands out as a vulnerable entity (trouble stems mainly from LATAM). Broadly, it appears that banks in India, Peru, Colombia, South Africa and Brazil are generating a swelling quantity of NNNPLs. Conversely, Greece is reducing NNNPLs at a phenomenal rate.
Edition: 128
- 04 February, 2022