Consumer Discretionary
Gordon Haskett Research Advisors
Ahead of the group's Q3 results in early Mar, Chuck Grom upgrades CASY to Buy. His increased optimism is driven by: 1) more optimistic view on near-term fuel margins; 2) sustainable foot traffic trends per GHRA’s Placer analysis; and 3) continued momentum on the digital front as their SimilarWeb data suggests app downloads and engagement remain robust even with a growing install base. Chuck increases his Q3 EPS estimate from $1.79 to $2.10 with his FY25 and FY26 EPS also moving higher to $14.30 and $16.20, respectively. His model now implies ~13.0% EBITDA growth vs. guidance of "at least 10.0% growth".
Edition: 205
- 21 February, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
ULTA's bet that big Jan / Feb launches would help regain prestige beauty share losses from 2023 may be at risk. While Sol de Janeiro and Charlotte Tilbury are the most highly anticipated launches in ULTA's history, foot and web traffic were down in Jan (-4.3% & -0.5% respectively per Placer & Similarweb) and a sudden downtrend in the mass beauty segment (-3% YTD Y/Y per Neilsen) threatens to offset this newness. Momentum in exclusive Sephora brands and stagnation of legacy brands (EL) dampen the outlook even further.
Edition: 180
- 23 February, 2024
European & US short ideas
Since Vision pitched their short thesis on Vidrala, Verallia and O-I Glass at our Equity Shorting Conference in mid-Mar the stocks have underperformed the Stoxx600 by ~8%. In the last couple of months they have also initiated 3 new European shorts, 3 new US shorts, and has readied a new $7bn+ European short (trades ~$20m/day and has short interest of <1%) for initiation next week. Please join Vision for a meeting while members of their team are in Paris (Jun 5th-6th), Zurich (Jun 7th) and London (Jun 8th-12th).
In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, AutoStore, Boohoo, Burlington, Colruyt, De'Longhi, Electrolux, Gerresheimer, H&M, Hargreaves Lansdown, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC, UiPath and Whirlpool.
Edition: 161
- 26 May, 2023
A new $3bn+ M/Cap European industrial short
Industrials
Trades >$10m/day and has <1% short interest - will be lapping price increases at a time when volumes have turned negative and there are substitution threats and declining per capita usage of products at some of its largest customers. It trades >10x EV/EBITDA on 2023 estimates that call for 40% growth in EBITDA.
In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, Boohoo, Colruyt, H&M, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC and UiPath.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
Exciting new $5bn+ Industrial Short
Industrials
Trades more than $30m/day and has short interest below 5% - over-earned in 2021, faces increasing competition and bullish estimates, and its inventory accounting method may have unsustainably boosted margins.
Vision Research aims to find liquid, non-consensus, fundamental US & European shorts, generating ~25 new ideas p.a. The shorts initiated by Vision during 2021 have fallen an average of 9%, with average alpha of 16%. Stocks that fell more than 25% included Peloton, UiPath, Allegro, Boohoo, Traeger, Children’s Place, SimilarWeb and Vital Farms.
Edition: 128
- 04 February, 2022