EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Sodexo (SW FP) France

Industrials

Iron Blue Financials

An Iron Blue score of 28/60 is top quartile (fertile ground for shorting). Red flags include 1) Regular (and higher y/y) use of stripped out restructuring and other one-off costs. 2) Elevated use of provisions accounting, including €39m releases during FY23. 3) Increased client investment capitalisations. 4) Gap between €2.9bn headline net debt (2.4x net debt/EBITDA) and Iron Blue’s preferred calculation (€4.0bn, 2.9x). 5) Extended KPMG auditor tenure (20 years) and above average non-audit fees. 6) Management structure out of line with best practice (combined CEO/chair, non-independent board, shares/votes mismatch, Bellon cross-holding). 7) 41% y/y rise in whistleblower cases.

Edition: 174

- 24 November, 2023


Sodexo (SW FP) France

Industrials

Iron Blue Financials

An Iron Blue score of 28/60 is top quartile - fertile ground for shorting. Accounting red flags include: margin recovery supported by falling D&A (partly following stripped out asset impairments), above avg. use of provisions accounting, contract cost capitalisations at a decade high, widening gap between headline net debt and Iron Blue’s measure, and €99m Y/Y increase in reverse factoring. Governance red flags: combined chair/CEO/controlling shareholding, disparity between shares and votes, Bellon cross holding, above avg. non-audit payments and auditor tenures of 19 and 28 years. FY23 brings a change in auditor.

Edition: 149

- 25 November, 2022