Channel Chatter: Regional Security VAR, ESX Conference, BEAD
Technology
SPR’s recent channel conversations highlight growing traction for emerging vendors like Onum and Cribl, which optimise SIEM data flow and reduce Splunk renewal costs. CrowdStrike remains a standout with strong SIEM growth and aggressive sales execution, though channel favouritism limits broader access. Cloudflare, despite a strong product, struggles with channel inefficiencies, while Fortinet is gaining share in select regions but not winning new logos with Lacework. Cisco’s security momentum may be challenged by the departure of Gary Steele. Meanwhile, BEAD funding delays and policy shifts are hurting traditional fibre and “turf” vendors, as fixed wireless and satellite gain favour. At ESX, Napco remains a solid player, but growth has normalised post-3G sunset.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
Technology
Adult supervision to finally payoff - for the first time in several years, we are finally seeing SPLK focus on disciplined execution under the new CEO Gary Steele. Having beaten revenue expectations and EPS forecasts in 3Q23, Srini Nandury has significantly increased his EPS forecasts for this year and next (his estimates were already materially above consensus). While nobody is immune to a spending slowdown, Srini expects SPLK to fare better than many other players in the market, yet the stock trades at 3.0x EV/C2024 sales vs. a security peer group multiple of 4.9x. TP $125 (50% upside).
Edition: 150
- 09 December, 2022
Technology
Cloud-first strategy continues to resonate with customers but is yet to resonate with investors - SPLK is currently trading at less than half the multiple (4.9x) vs. peers, despite growing faster than its competitors. The increasing mix of cloud revenue is understating the company's overall growth rate. Srini Nandury expects enterprises to standardise on SPLK, given it has one of the best observability platforms in the industry combined with the best log management platform. The notion of competition with Datadog, Elastic and Dynatrace is overblown. TP $200 (70% upside).
Edition: 125
- 10 December, 2021
CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Technology
Following stellar results and with the company once again ending the quarter with a record pipeline, Srini Nandury expects further beats and raises in H2. He continues to expect higher levels of security spending with different players winning in various segments of the market - CRWD to triumph in the EDR space and make a strong run in the SIEM space. Srini also notes that customer interest in Humio is very high which is likely to pose a problem for Splunk. CRWD’s moat is becoming deeper and broader. TP $275 (25% upside).
Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021