Behavioural Inflection Reversal: What Next?

RW Advisory

Ron William’s prediction (see IRF Podcast here) of a “growing probability of a dramatic ‘flash crash’ risk into Q3, from early August onwards, weighed down by compounding triple whammy headwinds, of momentum extremes, rotation fragility and cycle asymmetric risk” has come true. What next? Despite the sharp oversold reactionary bounce and growing back to normal, soft-landing consensus; RWA remains tactically short in their model portfolio (strategically underweight), with trailing stops, amidst likely elevated volatility, into September, leading to a strategic top in 2025 (see chart mosaic). A barbell strategy is prudent. Keep legacy profits trimmed, hedge further downside risk and build smart portfolio diversification, notably in Gold and other defensive plays.

- 09 August, 2024

Breaking M&A news

Betaville

Betaville published two proprietary intelligence alerts in Dec 21 and Jan 22 highlighting how Audioboom, the Aim-listed, podcasting business was at the centre of takeover speculation, including the possibility of interest from a US-based technology giant. At the time of the first alert, BOOM’s shares were trading at £14.20. On Sunday, Sky News reported that both Amazon and Spotify are looking at purchasing the company. The shares are now trading above £20.00.

- 18 February, 2022

Spotify (SPOT US) US

Communications

Arete Research

Stuck on shuffle - losing market share, estimates declining and needs fresh management. SPOT keeps reducing user guidance and is losing share to YouTube, which is winning Gen Z users. Despite spending €1bn on podcast ad tech/content, consensus estimates for both 2022 and 2023 sales and adj. EBITDA are lower than two years ago. ARPU has declined consistently despite price hikes. Ad sales compete with Internet players with better targeting and wider use cases. SPOT is struggling to realise “leverage” as prospects for a better deal from labels fade. TP $172 (30% downside).

- 17 September, 2021