China Tech: Survey feedback on semiconductors
Technology
The power semiconductor market is showing signs of recovery with Q2 seeing improved sentiment and Q3 potentially marking the bottom. MOS demand is rebounding for domestic manufacturers, while overseas firms are seeing eased inventory pressures. The rebound in consumer electronics is expected to benefit the likes of Yangjie Technology and JieJie Microelectronics. In the IGBT sector, as overseas inventory clears, new energy vehicle customers may increase adoption of domestic alternatives. Companies such as StarPower Semiconductor, CRRC Times Electric and Silan Microelectronics are well positioned to gain market share.
Edition: 190
- 12 July, 2024
More derating risks for Chinese power device vendors
Technology
Latest channel checks indicate that AceCamp’s negative thesis is starting to play out - sees another 25-40% downside risk for stocks including StarPower, Silan and Macmic. 1) Automotive IGBT price cuts - expects the global IGBT wafer supply/demand ratio to rise from 101% in 1H23 to 109%/137% in 2H23/1H24 and 131%/117% in 2H24/2H25. 2) Expects another 5-10% ASP erosion for commoditised power devices in 2H23 due to the aggressive power capacity expansion of Chinese tier 2/3 foundries. 3) PV IGBT price hikes are unsustainable - expects oversupply in 2H23 and an industry shift to SiC at a faster pace in 2024/25.
Edition: 159
- 28 April, 2023
StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH)
Technology
The Street continues to underestimate the negative impact of IGBT capacity oversupply and BYD's vertical integration - StarPower faces a deteriorating competitive landscape and ASP / margin contraction. AceCamp expects Industrial IGBT gross margin to fall from ~40% in 2022 to less than 20% in 2025, while Automotive IGBT gross margins will drop from 50% to under 30% over the same period. Their net income forecast is 20-30% below consensus of Rmb1.3-1.5bn in 2023, and AceCamp thinks the stock could fall to 30-40x 2023/24 PE which implies c.40% downside over the next 18 months.
Edition: 153
- 03 February, 2023