US: What if courts strike down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs?
It’s an exercise in the unthinkable: what if the Federal Circuit becomes the third federal court to find the IEEPA tariffs unlawful, scuppering Trump’s tariff plans. A September ruling could mean that more than $100bn in tariff revenue will need to be funded if Trump fails to win. Should the courts decide against Trump, James Lucier expects the Federal Circuit to uphold the decision with an authoritative en banc ruling, which will render it much less likely for the Supreme Court to grant a stay and keep the tariffs in place. Global markets will be disrupted at the sudden elimination of tariffs and refunds may take time to sort out. Trump doesn’t have a Plan B, and any claims that he can use authorities such as Sections 122, 232 and 308 fail to recognise the relatively limited authority these provide compared to IEEPA. Trump will no doubt build a protectionist wall but will lack the free hand he hoped to have under IEEPA.
Edition: 216
- 25 July, 2025
Trade of the week: USD/MXN
The US strike on Iran has moved the market from a state of uncertainty about whether the US will strike to uncertainty about whether Iran will respond. The trend of reduced Iranian action suggests that their ability to do so is limited. As such the market may refocus on the July 9th deadlines and the slowdown in US data. David Woo sees these events as bearish for equities, although stocks are proving to be resilient, in large part due to retail buying. What may prove to be less resilient on this theme is MXN. Since 2nd April, MXN has traded broadly in line with the S&P but has seen a more significant reversal since Israel first attacked Iran. Unwinding of positions established since 2nd April could easily take USD/MXN to 20 in the short term. David sold the September MXN future at 0.05142. He’ll take profit on a move to 20 in USD/MXN and stop out at 18.90.
Edition: 214
- 27 June, 2025
US: Liberation Day
The swathe of tariffs was worse than expected, and Gerard Minack says that lower tariffs must be negotiated within the next few weeks to prevent a serious knock to growth. Whilst a recession is possible, it’s not yet Gerard’s base case, and markets are wrong to expect Fed intervention otherwise. He also expects double-digit percentage declines in both US and non-US equity markets. As is to be expected, treasuries will rally as equities fall, but the gains may not persist. If inflation concerns limit the Fed’s ability to ease, long-end rates will start to rise as short-rate markets take out the cuts that are now priced. Moreover, treasuries will have to cope with large ongoing deficits. Just as equity investors are now realising that the strike on the Trump put is lower than they expected, treasury market investors may also recognise that any Bessent put is almost as worthless.
Edition: 208
- 04 April, 2025
South Africa: Inside the ANC
Krutham (formerly known as Intellidex)
The status of the relationship between the ANC in Gauteng and the national ANC has become an important sovereign risk determinant since the party’s failure to strike a coalition deal. In his latest note, Peter Montalto tackles some of the questions concerning this relationship. The Gauteng leadership of the ANC has demonstrated reservations about working with the DA. Personal tensions and leadership ambitions have fuelled speculation of disharmony and some leaders have become reluctant to confront the DA as it now has a big say on who becomes president of the country. Overall, Peter remains relatively sanguine that the Gauteng situation will not derail the National or KZN coalitions for now. However, as internal leadership succession issues in the ANC accelerate towards 2027, noise will certainly rise further still, but also real risk. The baseline expectation that the GNU will last five years remains unchanged.
Edition: 199
- 15 November, 2024
Crude turns volatile, propped up by Middle East fears
Vandana Hari says crude oil’s heightened volatility and the geopolitical risk premium – at least $6-7/barrel at current price levels – is likely to sustain while the threat of an Israel/Iran war hangs over the market. Vandana notes that in her base case, any Israeli strike against Iran would be measured and limited. None of the worst-case scenarios of a Mideast war spiralling out of control figure in her baseline assumptions. Elsewhere, Vandana is not dwelling too much on the details of the so-far disappointing Chinese stimulus, because it was and remains a non-event for the oil complex. Instead, she points out that it’s time to start paying close attention once again to US economic sentiment, as it is rotating back to the centre-stage for oil as a demand proxy.
Edition: 197
- 18 October, 2024
MENA: The big payback
For nearly twenty years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned about the perils the Iranian nuclear program poses to the Jewish people in particular and to the world in general. In the coming months, he may finally have an opportunity to destroy the program, leveraging the momentum of Israel’s recent successes to achieve his life’s goal. Despite serious logistical obstacles, Niall Ferguson thinks Israel could manage a conventional strike, the odds of which are elevated (40% probability by year-end). However, he anticipates that an attack on the nuclear program would come at the end of an escalation cycle rather than at the beginning of one.
Edition: 197
- 18 October, 2024
Financials
Strike has been consistently growing profits (averaged +35% p.a. for the last 5 years) and has avoided the taint of scandal that some competitors have suffered from. The PER is currently ~15x and tightening industry regulations are helping improve practices and driving dodgier players out, which should boost confidence amongst investors in the larger listed players in the segment. Asymmetric expects consensus forecasts for FY9/24CoE of OP +35% to be beaten. Strike has ¥16bn cash, no debt and generated >¥6bn FCF last year. Management has admitted it does not need this much cash and has raised the payout ratio to 34% while also considering a buyback.
Edition: 195
- 20 September, 2024
Nigeria: Inflation battle could be impeded by minimum wage plans
Inflation remains a key source of political risk, with prices accelerating to a new 28-year high in April, hitting 33.69% y.o.y. However, the Central Bank’s ongoing battle to tackle the upward pressures could suffer a blow from plans to increase the national minimum wage. The decision stems from the country’s two largest unions leading disruptive strikes, with the potential for a 100% increase in the minimum wage from 20USD to 40USD per month. Although this is a far from the union’s 327YSD a month request, it is likely to be significantly above what is fiscally sustainable for both federal and state governments. If an increase goes ahead, enforcement may be uneven, leading to further strike actions in the coming months.
Edition: 188
- 14 June, 2024
Materials
Given OLN’s impressive return profile and outperformance, relative to peers, during CEO Scott Sutton’s tenure, Hassan Ahmed wonders why the company's Board was unable to strike a deal to retain his services. However, despite Hassan’s frustration over Sutton's upcoming departure, he believes many of the strategies implemented by the outgoing CEO are sustainable. Furthermore, OLN already seems to be trading below trough valuation levels, highlighting the stock's attractiveness. Hassan's 12-month TP is $75 (55% upside).
Edition: 170
- 29 September, 2023
Ghana: Not giving up yet
Ghana was pushed into sovereign default by a virulent market strike and currency run last year, exacerbated by wide fiscal imbalances and a very high public debt burden. At the same time, however, Ghana also has a favourable external position, with relatively strong exports, a balanced basic BOP, no net funding gaps and an external debt/export ratio that is visibly lower than in other frontier high-stress/default cases. If Ghana is successful in adopting a fiscal consolidation program and external investors remain cautious, we could well see dollar debt become an attractive prospect, similar to what Jonathan Anderson recently concluded on Ecuador. Stay tuned.
Edition: 161
- 26 May, 2023
OTE Group (HTO GA) Greece
Communications
ResearchGreece is concerned with Nova-Wind's more-aggressive-than-expected commercial policy announced on Jan 11th and the potential ARPU / EBITDA impact on OTE. The dividend & share buyback for 2023 is not necessarily at risk thanks to OTE's dividend-intended cash buffers. But 2023-2024 EBITDA could be, as they doubt OTE will let subscribers go. In the end, Nova’s zero margin / cash burning strategy could backfire, but the market damage will be done. Heightened competition could turn out to be strike No.3 for OTE, after higher interest rates and lower-than-expected remuneration in 2022.
Edition: 152
- 20 January, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
Trades at a ~5-turn multiple discount to Avis, with limited Sell-side coverage, and very attractive warrants ($13.80 strike price expiring 2051). This is a “classic bankruptcy re-listing” - strong new management team; B/S restructured with minimal debt; and renegotiated contracts on more favourable terms. Given the ongoing rental car shortage and robust industry backdrop, pricing will remain positive for at least another 18 months. HTZ’s recent order with Tesla for 100k EVs also gives it a first-mover advantage into electrification for rentals vs. peers. TP $35 (35% upside).
Edition: 125
- 10 December, 2021