Telenor (TEL NO) Norway
Communications
TEL has announced that it has agreed to buy GlobalConnect's (GC) Consumer Business in Norway. Not that many mature fibre assts have been sold in Europe, and so this deal is interesting on quite a few levels: for those thinking about what FastFiber in Portugal is worth or what Virgin Media might sell a stake in NetCo for, or what price Zegona / MasOrange might achieve in Spain, then this deal has relevance. Indeed, one could even argue that there is a read across for the incumbents themselves, as their fixed businesses will eventually broadly resemble GC. In this report New Street looks at what the deal means for fibre valuations, fibre capex assumptions and for TEL itself.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
Telcos: Q4 first time ever all EU markets are in positive growth
Communications
Service revenue growth remains at record highs (+2.2% Y/Y in Q4, the highest growth rate the sector has achieved over the last 10+ years) and for the first time all markets have positive growth (between +1-5% Y/Y). EBITDA growth also improved, while capex appears to have peaked. OpFCF was +17.5% Y/Y in Q4 and +5.2% for the full year. This was the second quarter in a row of ROCE growth (it is now back above 8% for the first time in 2 years). New Street strongly believes the good service revenue growth will filter through to permanently better FCF and higher ROCE thanks to the improving regulatory environment. Their current top picks are BT, DT, Orange, Telenor, Telia and Vodafone.
Edition: 184
- 19 April, 2024
Telecoms: Happier times ahead
Communications
After many years of headwinds, New Street is bullish on the outlook for the European telecoms sector as we head into 2024, with a continued reduction in risk perception helping to support a multiple re-rating driven by the following themes: 1) Ongoing regulatory tailwinds, 2) Declining energy costs, 3) Capex going past its peak driving above inflation OpFCF growth, 4) Copper shutdown, 5) Further sector consolidation. Their top picks are BT, Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica, Telenor, Telia and Vodafone.
Edition: 176
- 22 December, 2023
Telenor (TEL NO) Norway
Communications
Leverage is coming down, dividends to flow. TEL has won a tax case (+NOK2.4bn) and sold its satellite business for an EV of NOK2.4bn, both of which will help with deleveraging. New Street explains why they believe consensus net debt numbers are wrong and have also published a note looking at Thailand; incorporating their new associate dividend assumptions they remain convinced that the group’s dividend will not be cut and can actually grow as OCF grows (EBITDA led). TEL has a 8.5% dividend yield vs. the sector average of 5.1%. Given the positive news flow, any weakness in the share price should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Edition: 174
- 24 November, 2023
Telcos: Ignore the negative sentiment
Communications
The overall picture for European telcos in 1Q23 was actually pretty good, according to analysts at New Street - service revenue trends remained at their highs and were stable at +0.9% y/y; EBITDA remained positive, and given the phasing of energy and wage drags, and given that price increases are yet to kick-in in earnest, New Street expects trends to improve in the latter part of this year. They would single out Telenor as a key Buy recommendation with Norway as one of the fastest growing markets and are also encouraged to see Spanish service revenue growth turning positive for the first time since 4Q19 which is supportive of their Buy recommendation on Telefonica.
Edition: 163
- 23 June, 2023