EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

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Company Research

Tencent Music (TME US) US

Communications

Hedgeye

The most well-communicated beat in TME's history happened last week and it wasn't impressive. That is according to Felix Wang, who says the market is pricing TME as a high growth company which it is certainly not. 2023 will be no different. The stock is way ahead of itself (up >75% since Q3 earnings) even though the revenue decline in Q4 improved from 6% to 3%. Big whoop. The huge lift from the new music albums (Jay Chou, BLACKPINK, etc) will dissipate in 1Q23. The profitability gains in 2022 is mainly due to a 60% decline in marketing costs (ex stock comp) but that bottomed as a % of revenues. Felix believes TME does not deserve to trade at a forward P/E multiple higher than 10x.

Edition: 157

- 31 March, 2023