EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

TomTom (TOM2 NA)

Technology

the IDEA!

Leveraging its fixed cost base - management's financial goals for 2025 are likely to prove too challenging, but as long as TomTom is capable of increasing its revenue and keeping strong control over its total cash spend, its EBITDA and FCF are expected to reach levels making the stock an attractive investment case. Under the IDEA!’s base case scenario, the company’s valuation multiples are estimated to arrive at 6.8x EV/EBITDA and 9.6% FCF Yield for 2025 and 3.9x and 17.4% respectively for the year thereafter. Investors can expect to see a rerating of the company’s share price when there is more visibility in new contract wins of its Enterprise entity.

Edition: 185

- 03 May, 2024


Ferrovial (FER SM) Spain

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Prolonged traffic recovery at 407-ETR has been weighing on the share price, but Robert Crimes expects an acceleration as Covid restrictions were fully lifted at the end of Q1 - TomTom congestion data for Toronto is almost back to 2019 levels and Insight’s Google Maps survey shows 407-ETR average peak time savings of 26 mins and LV Cost of Time Saved per hour of US$30. Robert increases his valuation of FER's 43.2% stake in 407-ETR by +€0.6bn to €17.5bn (only slightly less than the group’s entire Managed Lanes portfolio at €18bn); it is the most valuable toll road in Insight’s Global Infrastructure universe. TP €62 (150% upside).

Edition: 137

- 10 June, 2022