The sneaker / active world comes undone
Consumer Discretionary
As Nike finally takes steps forward it seems as though its neighbours are falling apart. Adidas has had a hit shoe (Samba) for a few years, yet it has not changed the momentum for the brand. Allbirds, should never have gone public, is retrenching. Kevin Plank is back at Under Armour and the CEO of Brooks is stepping down. Retail Tracker’s thesis: 1) New competition from ON / Hoka has hit several brands hard, while Alo, Gymshark and Vuori have appealed to younger men (and women) as an alternative to UA and ADS apparel. 2) Fashion has changed and with this change comes a change in footwear - for women this means a shift to loafers and ballet flats vs. sneakers. 3) We have not had a new trend in active / sport with white shoes trending for too many years. Bring back some colour and fashion!
Edition: 182
- 22 March, 2024
Consumer Discretionary
Brian McGough thinks the brand is growing too quickly and outright recklessly. ONON’s model reminds him of when Kors blew up in 2015 - it sold indiscriminately into wholesale, resulting in discounting, and a slowdown in high margin DTC sales. Brian also thinks the situation is reminiscent of early cycle Under Armour which was billed as “the next Nike”. At least UAA was a real brand, he is not convinced ONON is. To date, the company has managed to keep discounting to a minimum, however, this will change in 2023 as 190% inventory growth flows through the channel. Brian sees 50% downside and would pair a short position here against longs in Deckers and NKE.
Edition: 158
- 14 April, 2023
Technology
This damning 30-page report by Joe Gagan argues that PTC's management have made multiple material misstatements about their business - Joe argues that investors have been misled about the market acceptance and capabilities of its growth products and management have used the change to a new revenue recognition rule and the change to a new subscription billing method to cover up its real results. He sees similarities to recent cases brought by the SEC against Theranos, Nikola and Under Armour. TP $49 (50%+ downside).
Edition: 124
- 26 November, 2021