EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

UniCredit (UCG IM) Italy

Financials

Fighting Financials

Management has been heavily focused on improving the bank’s operations, while also being highly shareholder-friendly, with a commitment to distribute >€9bn by way of dividends and buybacks in FY25e. UCG also has material optionality in terms of M&A and in the context of a Europe that is insecure about diminishing US defensive support and stagnant economic growth, Fighting Financials thinks European regulators will be more open to supporting pan-European corporate “champions” across sectors, including financial services. Ultimately, they see the bank as one of the higher quality, more defensive names, able to benefit from certain structural and geopolitical dynamics coming into play across the continent.

Edition: 206

- 07 March, 2025


Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) Greece

Financials

ResearchGreece

The Greek bank announces an agreement with UniCredit a) to merge their Romanian operations, with ALPHA keeping a 10% stake in the combined entity while pocketing €300m; b) the two sides entering a commercial partnership in asset management and unit linked products, with UCG buying 51% in AlphaLife Insurance; and c) with the Italian bank submitting a bid to buy HFSF’s 9% stake in ALPHA. ResearchGreece considers this to be a win:win for both sides and with the overhang lifted, they upgrade ALPHA to Buy with a TP of €1.84; sees limited downside to current trading of 0.47x TBV.

Edition: 172

- 27 October, 2023