Consumer stocks poised for a recovery
Consumer Discretionary
AIR expects a wave of upward revisions from European corporations in the coming months as tariff clouds thin, China stabilises, infrastructure spend ramps up and European rates remain low. The missing piece is consumer confidence, which should rebound quickly if geopolitical tensions ease. Consumer names like Inditex, Stellantis, LVMH, Diageo, Kering, Adidas, Nestle and Unilever look compelling after steep share price declines, with valuations back to decade-lows. Many of these firms are pursuing clear turnaround strategies focused on FCF generation, deep efficiency gains (utilising AI) and renewed focus on core businesses - supported by a trend toward insider CEO appointments, after a decade of appointing outsiders.
Edition: 218
- 22 August, 2025
Multinationals in China: Consumer caution persists
A year after the pro-growth signalling from Beijing, most consumer sector multinationals still report subdued household spending in China. Elevated household savings and low consumer confidence - echoed by both luxury and FMCG players - suggest that the recovery has yet to reach full momentum. Weakness is most apparent in discretionary categories, particularly luxury and F&B. Kering reported high-20% sales declines among Chinese consumers, while Unilever and AB InBev flagged weak foodservice volumes. Even Hermes conceded that momentum is lacking and noted a "wait-and-see" mindset, despite modest growth. Looking ahead, unless a shock-and-awe stimulus package arrives, 86Research expects a gradual, selective recovery rather than a broad consumption rebound.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
Consumer Staples
Following publication of the company’s FY24 annual report, Iron Blue increases their ULVR score +3pts to 27/60 (newly top quartile / fertile grounds for shorting). This reflects 1) Increased stripped out restructuring expense (8% of PBT adj vs. 5% FY23). 2) Profit supports (swings in commodity hedges, FX and inventory impairments) that contributed half of PBT adj Y/Y growth and may prove unsustainable. 3) New disclosure of €2bn reverse factoring balance. 4) Increased goodwill impairment test assumed long term growth rate of 2.8% (FY23: 2.3%), above the 2.1% average for Iron Blue’s coverage universe. 5) KPMG’s tenure as auditor now exceeds the 10-year best practice maximum and non-audit fees contributed 33% of their FY24 payments.
Edition: 212
- 30 May, 2025
Consumer Staples
New CEO Hein Schumacher will have a hard time creating shareholder value as he is stretching beyond his depth during a time of intense household budgetary pressures, rising input costs and pressure from an activist investor. Although Schumacher has global experience, ULVR is several times larger than any business he has previously run and faces specific challenges (margin pressure, a new operating structure and decisions on which long-term brands to own). Paragon’s research includes interviews with Schumacher’s former colleagues; while they gave him the highest rating for financial acumen and integrity, this was countered by his abrasiveness and weak self-awareness.
Edition: 167
- 18 August, 2023