Outside of AI, why invest in the US?

View from the Peak

US equities remain the world’s most important market, but passive benchmarks are distorted by AI concentration risk. Durable alpha lies in structural themes beyond AI. Power infrastructure (Constellation, Duke, NextEra) will benefit from grid bottlenecks as data centres drive demand. Re-industrialisation (Caterpillar, Honeywell, Rockwell) reflects reshoring and automation. The energy transition (Dominion, Enphase, ExxonMobil) requires trillions in capex. Housing scarcity (D.R. Horton, Home Depot, Lennar) is a structural imbalance. Healthcare innovation (Abbott, Eli Lilly, UnitedHealth) rides longevity and med-tech advances. Cybersecurity (Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) is non-discretionary. Generational wealth transfer (BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Schwab) reshapes capital flows. The AI productivity super-cycle is real, but thematic allocations across these shifts offer broader, smarter US exposure.

- 19 September, 2025

Healthcare alpha generation

Healthcare

Channel Dynamics

Channel Dynamics has built a strong record of HC alpha generation by leveraging deep channel checks with private company experts and providers. Over the past 12+ months, their calls have consistently delivered meaningful relative alpha from report release through earnings, ahead of major stock moves including: UnitedHealth (flagged negative MLR inflection and UNH exposure before disappointing earnings and stock collapse); DexCom (called negative inflection in DME performance before turning back positive on DME relationship improvements and G7 market share gains); Align (correctly predicted Q/Q shifts in clear aligner and capital equipment purchasing trends); Penumbra (called positive DVT market growth trends and PEN market share gains in DVT, PE and Neuro Segments); and Dentsply Sirona (flagged worsening product/vendor performance and further deterioration from tariff impacts).

- 19 September, 2025

UnitedHealth (UNH)

Healthcare

CTFN

The leadership transition at UNH, while unexpected, underscores a commitment to continuity, according to CTFN’s sources familiar with the matter. One source noted Stephen Hemsley did not to have return as CEO, while also stressing the importance of his institutional knowledge and leadership during past crises. Sources also linked his reappointment to regulatory strategy, particularly regarding the contested Amedisys acquisition. The company’s suspension of its 2025 financial outlook, attributed to higher-than-expected costs in Medicare Advantage, is viewed as an operational issue rather than a trigger for strategic overhaul. Hemsley has pledged to implement "remedial responses" across the group focusing on pricing and operational efficiency - hallmarks of his previous tenure.

- 16 May, 2025

Which stocks >$100bn m/cap are buys now?

Trivariate Research

With investors searching for value in the current market sell-off and likely looking to buy names among the safer, larger cap universe, Trivariate has assessed the performance of several metrics within the stocks >$100bn m/cap to see if they could systematically pick winners from losers. The best performing signal over the last 10 years, was buying the companies in the top third of forecasted revenue growth, while the second best was buying the one-third of companies with the lowest short interest. The worst performing signals were those in the highest third of leverage and stock volatility (distance-to-default) and those with the worst third of downward earnings revisions. Current long ideas from Trivariate’s $100bn Club Framework include all the Mag 7 (except Tesla), as well as Eli Lilly, Visa and UnitedHealth. Shorts include Goldman Sachs, PepsiCo, Caterpillar and Starbucks.

- 21 March, 2025

CVS Health Corp (CVS)

Healthcare

Valens Research

Following its acquisition of Aetna, CVS is in the midst of a transition from pharmacy business to a massively profitable medical data and technology company - this reflects what UnitedHealth accomplished with Optum, and gives CVS opportunities to monetise its existing pharmacy business in new ways which could accelerate profitability and growth. Uniform Accounting confirms that the transition is underway and that the market isn’t pricing this in. Considering management’s strong execution and alignment to continue executing, equity upside continues to be warranted.

- 01 April, 2022