Consumer Staples
Despite the disappointing 3Q24 results that VITL reported in Nov 24, the stock has been on a tear the past two months as a severe resurgence in bird flu has driven egg prices to new record highs. Nonetheless, OWS finds increasing evidence their bear thesis is playing out as widely-followed Nielsen and Circana scanner data does not capture the full extent of VITL’s promotional activities. Additionally, while these data sources may present a rosy picture of VITL’s dollar market share, industry participants have repeatedly told OWS that more comprehensive and detailed data available from SPINS reveals steep declines in VITL’s volume market share. OWS considers the stock to be an extremely attractive risk-reward short at this time.
Edition: 204
- 07 February, 2025
Exciting new $5bn+ Industrial Short
Industrials
Trades more than $30m/day and has short interest below 5% - over-earned in 2021, faces increasing competition and bullish estimates, and its inventory accounting method may have unsustainably boosted margins.
Vision Research aims to find liquid, non-consensus, fundamental US & European shorts, generating ~25 new ideas p.a. The shorts initiated by Vision during 2021 have fallen an average of 9%, with average alpha of 16%. Stocks that fell more than 25% included Peloton, UiPath, Allegro, Boohoo, Traeger, Children’s Place, SimilarWeb and Vital Farms.
Edition: 128
- 04 February, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Another timely short from Robert Prather - dismal earnings has seen $10bn+ wiped from PTON's market cap. Having initiated coverage mid Sep’21 at $112 (58-page report available on request), the shares are now languishing just above $50. PTON is the latest in several successful short calls from Vision Research. In fact, of the 23 ideas they have initiated on in the past 12 months, 20 have generated positive alpha (in a rising market), including UiPath, Vital Farms, Boohoo and Allegro (share price has fallen 40%+ from recent highs).
Edition: 123
- 12 November, 2021