Retail Cross Currents: 4 key themes & top stock ideas
Consumer
Gordon Haskett Research Advisors
GHRA highlights an unusually volatile retail backdrop through late 2025 and early 2026, noting multiple “cross currents” affecting both consumers and retailers. Recent rating changes include downgrades for Dollar Tree (Reduce) and BJ's Wholesale Club (Hold), while upgrades cover Williams-Sonoma (Buy), Wayfair (Accumulate), Kohl's (Accumulate) and Dick's Sporting Goods (Hold). GHRA’s key investment themes emphasise: 1) stocks offering both EPS upside and multiple expansion (Five Below, Ross Stores, Burlington); 2) underappreciated turnaround stories (Kohl's, Dollar General); 3) selective “rate-trade” exposure favouring home furnishings over home improvement (Williams-Sonoma, Wayfair, Tractor Supply); and 4) secular winners / “Coffee Can” stocks (Walmart, Costco, TJX, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Casey's).
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
Something to Snack On: Amazon (AMZN) Drills Lowe's (LOW)
Consumer Discretionary
Amazon ran steep tool discounts over the holiday, highlighting Lowe’s pricing disadvantage. Across 25 items from brands like Bosch and Dewalt, Lowe’s averaged 27.5% higher prices; 15 items were cheaper on Amazon with average discounts of 34.6%, while only one was cheaper at Lowe’s. This follows R5's year-long observation that Lowe’s prices exceed Walmart’s on common goods. The wide gap raises concerns about Lowe’s gross margins and potential sales/earnings headwinds, even if housing improves. Meanwhile, Amazon’s aggressive pricing supports volume growth and advertising profits—a positive for AMZN but a structural challenge for broader retail.
Edition: 219
- 05 September, 2025
Consumer Staples
Scott Mushkin downgrades DG to Sell, citing widening price gaps with competitors, which threaten margins and volume share gains over the next 12-18 months. R5’s latest fieldwork shows a total basket premium of 9% vs. Walmart - well above the typical 3-7% range. Scott now sees pressure from WMT starting to impact the back half of 2025; while Amazon’s push to speed up delivery times in rural areas, coupled with its low pricing for everyday essentials also appears be gaining momentum. At the same time, Dollar Tree is making inroads into DG’s core markets. Finally, regulatory risks from SNAP eligibility changes and the MAHA movement targeting sugary foods are expected to negatively impact sales.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
Consumer Staples
Scott Muskin sees WMT as the “Nvidia of Retail” and explains why its equity could be worth a remarkable $250 per share. The upside is grounded in a powerful multi-year strategy driving accelerating earnings growth, supported by automation, expanding e-commerce profitability, surging advertising income, Walmart+ and improving sales mix. Scott draws bullish parallels to his experience in covering Amazon and its journey around enhancing profitability over the last 12+ months, as well as developing a WMT 2034 financial model similar to what he did to appraise AMZN's potential in its North American business. Fixing the “fresh” food offering through improved quality, delivery and in-store experience is also flagged as a critical catalyst for driving frequency, market share gains and a broader halo effect across the entire business.
Edition: 214
- 27 June, 2025
What is Amazon doing in its grocery store business?!
Consumer Discretionary
Amazon Fresh stores are an embarrassment, according to Scott Mushkin - just when he thought things couldn’t get any worse, his latest store visit reveals rampant out-of-stocks, incorrect electronic tags, as well as bizarrely low prices on certain items. Indeed, there were times when the AMZN price was nearly half of what Walmart was charging. While Scott currently does not see the lack of progress in the grocery business as a problem for the equity given how well the retail business is operated overall, getting fresh foods right will make a difference regarding the ultimate TAM of the business. He has advocated the need for a different approach, including floating the idea of spinning Whole Foods back out and keeping a minority stake.
Edition: 211
- 16 May, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
John Zolidis updates his best Long and Short ideas in Retail and Restaurants to start Q2. This follows a successful first quarter, where his average Short fell 11%, while his average Long was flat. Both compared favourably to his universe, which was down 6%, on average. The key change this quarter sees John turn bearish on TXRH as the business decelerates, margins inflect negatively and consensus forecasts appear too high. Compounding matters, the shares also trade at a premium to historical levels. Additional Short ideas include Cava, Dollarama and Tractor Supply, while on the Long side, he continues to be bullish on names such as Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Sprouts Farmers Market and Walmart.
Edition: 209
- 18 April, 2025
Do consumers need anyone else besides Walmart & Amazon?
Following WMT’s latest results, Scott Mushkin doesn’t think so. With market share flowing to WMT and AMZN at a quickening pace, which he sees being aided over the next few years by efficiency gains in distribution and logistics, as well as a growing high margin advertising business, other retailers will be pressured. At the same time, the increasing buying power of both companies could weigh on the margins of suppliers. Considering this backdrop, Scott sees slim pickings for investors owning other retailers, however, he does highlight the natural and organic grocery sector, as one that can grow quickly; he currently has a Buy on Natural Grocers, whose share price has risen 170% YTD.
Edition: 201
- 13 December, 2024
Amazon's aggressive pricing will likely have implications across retail
Consumer Discretionary / Staples
R5’s online pricing survey between AMZN and Walmart reveals shocking results - its one time purchase price basket was lower than WMT by 9%, which ballooned to 22% when they included all the discounting. With WMT generally considered to be the price leader, when R5 surveys retail stores, the incredibly sharp pricing by AMZN online could easily turn the holidays into a discounting jungle. Their research also reveals continued pressure on consumers and they believe the holiday selling period could be difficult for many retailers both from a revenues and profits perspective. They would exercise caution adding to positions, with the exception of AMZN, as it will likely gain share and it is the aggressor with the price cuts, suggesting that it is accounted for in its guidance.
Edition: 196
- 04 October, 2024
Industrials
The share price tanks as Q3 results disappoint after an increase in system costs. During the earnings call, SYM’s management referred to delays in permits and product delivery resulting in people not having anything to do. This is a characterisation of a construction / contracting company and not one developing automated technology. Hamed Khorsand also believes these issues could create additional risks re. its relationship with Walmart. SYM’s share price has already fallen ~45% since he initiated coverage with a Sell rating a few weeks ago, but Hamed stills more than 50% downside.
Edition: 192
- 09 August, 2024
Consumer Staples
R5 made several adjustments that push their equal-weighted valuation estimate of Walmart’s equity to ~$100. First, R5 extended out to look at FY27 (CY26). They then added about $0.30 to their current forecast of $3.20 in EPS in FY27 and added ~$2 billion to EBITDA. For a frame of reference, the Street’s current average estimate for FY27 is approximately $2.90. Turning to R5’s DCF, they grow EBIT 8% until TV, when they lower growth to 3.3%. Currently R5’s average EBIT growth rate is 6.5%, and TV is 3.0%. These are undoubtedly very bullish assumptions, but possible, in R5’s view, if they are right about the building advantages of the company’s business model.
Edition: 188
- 14 June, 2024
Consumer Staples
Gordon Haskett Research Advisors
Big 4Q23 beat driven by traffic & US GPM - FY24 guide looks conservative as the 2-year stacks need to implicitly decelerate from 1Q24's ~11.4% run-rate… a phenomenon that GHRA doesn’t think manifests as WMT's General Merchandise categories continue to mean revert. EPS of $7.30-7.50 looks plausible this year. From a capital allocation perspective, WMT returned to more aggressively repurchasing its stock which alongside the largest dividend increase since 2014 are all signs of a management team playing offense. The model's moat is becoming “Costco-like”, which reinforces GHRA’s positive stance. TP increases to $200 (25x FY25E EPS of $8.00).
Edition: 180
- 23 February, 2024
Consumer Staples
Scott Mushkin thinks it is glaringly obvious that the company does not have enough labour in its stores, is putting off basic maintenance and has not invested enough in its asset base. While eliminating a competitor through a merger that should yield significant synergies would normally lead him to be more positive, Scott’s research around the poor store conditions and Walmart’s execution improvements being accompanied by an accelerating remodel programme, has led him to become very bearish and he sees significant equity downside despite the modest PE and EV/EBITDA multiples afforded to the stock.
Edition: 178
- 26 January, 2024
Consumer Staples
The return of Todd Vasos as CEO will not magically make all DG’s problems go away and the Walmart threat is likely to become more of an issue as WMT moves to use its productivity savings from automation / workflow initiatives to lower prices. Walmart+ is also a growing headwind as it makes the service available to more rural communities and discounts the price for lower income households. As of now, R5 has DG’s EBIT margin in the low 5% range over the next few years, yielding mid $6’s in EPS, but this could be optimistic depending on the competitive climate. Assuming a 15 PE multiple, there remains plenty of equity downside.
Edition: 172
- 27 October, 2023
Consumer Staples
A burgeoning growth story - market share gains should accelerate, margins should improve, and earnings will likely exceed Scott Mushkin's prior estimates over the next few years. His revised FY24 and FY25 EPS estimates are $6.07 and $7.24, respectively. Scott has increased his long-term sales growth over the 10-year forecast period to ~4% (c.100bps higher than his previous forecast). Comp growth in Walmart US (ex fuel) averages ~3.5%. As far as profitability, he has modelled expansion to a 6% operating margin for Walmart US by FY28. Scott sees a good chance of the share price eclipsing $200 over the next 12-18 months.
Edition: 158
- 14 April, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
Gordon Haskett Research Advisors
Time to add more Off-Price Retail exposure - while Chuck Grom turned incrementally more positive on the OPR space when he recently upgraded TJX to Buy, he has been waiting for more “evidence” that middle-income shoppers would begin to trade down, while simultaneously looking for proof that inventory levels would improve. Commentary from Walmart, Target and Kohl’s suggests that this trade down is now occurring, while most retailers have made commendable progress since 2Q on the inventory front. As a result, Chuck upgrades ROST to Buy and increases his EPS estimates for FY22 to $4.30 and FY23 to $5.40.
Edition: 149
- 25 November, 2022
Companies with dangerous inventory levels
"FISH" - First In, Still Here. Two Rivers deconstruct their Earnings Quality model to focus solely on one aspect of poor earnings quality: significant inventory slowdowns. This looks at 1) The materiality of inventory levels to the business. 2) The trend in turnover. 3) The magnitude of the slowdown. As the odds of recession rise, companies caught with excess inventory will find themselves forced to offer price concessions, leading to sales and margin declines, and to earnings disappointments. Highlighted names include Alcoa, Amazon, Arista Networks, Beacon Roofing, Beyond Meat, First Solar, LGI Homes and Walmart.
Edition: 139
- 08 July, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
The Walmart of the UK pub sector and Tim Martin is its Sam Walton - the power of JDW's financial model is being underestimated according to Andrew Hollingworth. In his latest report, Andrew sets out two scenarios with only one difference between them: the first rebuilds EBIT margins to 10% by the end of the seven-year forecast period. The second assumes no operational gearing at all. The forecasts they produce are for investor IRRs over the next 7 years of 25% p.a. or 16% p.a. JDW is set to offer investors great long-term compounding.
Edition: 125
- 10 December, 2021
Something to Snack On: Three that Should Thrive
Consumer Staples
Walmart, Target, and Albertsons, roughed up by last month’s choppy market, are now building momentum and recent pullbacks present buying opportunities. WMT-Home Depot partnership shows a positive business trajectory. TGT is creating an unrivalled total experience allying with Levi's, Apple and Disney. ACI's company specific initiatives, including streamlining purchasing and growing its private brands, show the business is strong.
Edition: 121
- 15 October, 2021
JD.com (9618 HK)
Consumer Discretionary
With lingering concerns around short-term margin expansion as JD invests more aggressively in group purchasing aimed at the fresh food segment, Wium Malan examines the potential for long-term margin expansion and what that implies for current valuation levels for China’s largest direct retailer. As a base case, he argues that JD could sustainably generate ~4% NOPAT margins (vs. just 1.5% in 2020) and calculates fair value to be HK$405/share (50% upside). Other companies mentioned in the report include Amazon, Alibaba and Walmart.
Edition: 110
- 14 May, 2021