Retail Cross Currents: 4 key themes & top stock ideas

Consumer

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

GHRA highlights an unusually volatile retail backdrop through late 2025 and early 2026, noting multiple “cross currents” affecting both consumers and retailers. Recent rating changes include downgrades for Dollar Tree (Reduce) and BJ's Wholesale Club (Hold), while upgrades cover Williams-Sonoma (Buy), Wayfair (Accumulate), Kohl's (Accumulate) and Dick's Sporting Goods (Hold). GHRA’s key investment themes emphasise: 1) stocks offering both EPS upside and multiple expansion (Five Below, Ross Stores, Burlington); 2) underappreciated turnaround stories (Kohl's, Dollar General); 3) selective “rate-trade” exposure favouring home furnishings over home improvement (Williams-Sonoma, Wayfair, Tractor Supply); and 4) secular winners / “Coffee Can” stocks (Walmart, Costco, TJX, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Casey's).

- 03 October, 2025

Wayfair (W)

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Deja-vu to Mar 2019 when Chuck Grom first upgraded the stock to Buy - he sees a similar inflection point in the maturation of the business with the company clearly focused on improved profitability all while revenue trends in both e-commerce and home furnishings appear to be now bottoming out (with potential for a return to sustainable sales growth starting in 3Q23). Further, and equally important, as this was a case for his prior Hold-Rating, the company has significantly pulled back on promotional activity from Apr/May levels. Using a 1.0x P/S ratio, Chuck has a TP of $110 (55% upside).

- 18 August, 2023

Post-Pandemic Model Portfolio’s outperformance continues

Unit Economics

Since inception (31st Dec 2020) Nathan Weiss’ model portfolio has generated an impressive +25.09% total return (vs. +11.12% for S&P 500). He is currently 38.3% net long the energy sector (incl. Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure, ChampionX, Energy Transfer LP); 17.1% net long ‘re-opening’ names (incl. Dave & Buster’s, Six Flags) and 29.6% short ‘stay at home enablers’ (incl. Stitch Fix, ARK Next Generation Internet, Etsy, Wayfair). He recently increased his short position in DoorDash - sees >50% downside in a matter of months.

- 28 May, 2021

Overstock (OSTK)

Consumer Discretionary

MYST Advisors

An off the radar e-commerce play gaining share in home furnishings with upside optionality from its blockchain assets thrown in for free. Described as a low-cost version of Wayfair, this is a "self-help story" with a "changing narrative" under a new, high quality management team. Trades at just ~7% LTM FCF Yield; <1.0x FY22 Sales. TP $140 (100% upside) - this does not include OSTK’s blockchain assets (their prize asset being tZERO) which could be worth an additional ~$3bn, implying a SOTP TP of $210.

- 16 April, 2021