EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

bpost (BPOST BB) Belgium

Industrials

the IDEA!

Quality comes at a price - while the size and valuation of the recently proposed Staci acquisition has some analysts and investors concerned, it marks a first credible step aimed at accelerating the transformation of BPOST into a company with a bigger exposure to growth activities and higher margins. Analysts at the IDEA! think the process BPOST is going through shows some parallels with that of the three largest Dutch publishers in the late 1980s and 1990s. In view of the current valuation of the shares (just over 2x EV/adj. EBITDA) they feel that this is beginning to turn into an increasingly compelling investment case.

Edition: 184

- 19 April, 2024


PostNL (PNL NA) Netherlands

Industrials

the IDEA!

Delivery slip - now seeing clear evidence of the insourcing and rerouting by bol.com and at a faster pace than the team at the IDEA! had originally anticipated when they published their bearish report last Oct. On top of that, DHL has stepped up competition. In Belgium, PNL has lost part of its volume to bpost and is facing higher costs for the use of its subcontractors. The pressure on margins is particularly worrying. Reduced pricing power means that tariff increases are insufficient to offset the impact of the 2022 cost inflation, let alone that of 2023.

Edition: 153

- 03 February, 2023


bpost (BPOST BB) Belgium

Industrials

the IDEA!

Amazon’s insourcing of (part of) the last mile delivery is already having a negative impact on bpost’s parcels volume (-17% in 1Q22). However, the main threat of a local AMZN website will come from AMZN targeting small and mid-sized web shops to use its platform and its FBA services. By doing so, it would directly compete against bpost which is trying to compensate for the loss of its AMZN volume share by chasing new clients in this segment. Now is not the time for investors to go bottom fishing.

Edition: 139

- 08 July, 2022