Apple: HBM reallocation adds $4bn to iPhone memory bill
Technology
JNK Supply Chain Research reveals AAPL's iPhone memory costs have doubled as a share of BOM - from 5% to 10% - driven by structural HBM reallocation, not cyclical shortage. iPhone 17 Pro Max memory runs $41-$43 per unit vs. $22 in iPhone 15 Pro Max. Across 225m annual shipments, that is $4bn in incremental cost AAPL absorbs through margin compression, not price increases. HBM production for AI accelerators consumes 3x normal wafer capacity. SK Hynix and Samsung control 95% of DRAM supply with all capacity sold through 2026. AAPL negotiates from a position of weakness and there will no relief until late 2027 when new NAND lines come online. For timing of the resulting GM impact, contact us below. AAPL and other smartphone makers are covered in JNK's Consumer Tracker.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Technology
The Apple Killer - Xiaomi is eating up global market share in smart phones, tablets, home electronics and now cars. Erik@YWR feels like many investors are living in a bubble. They don’t spend time outside the US and Western Europe. They don’t go to Africa, the Middle East, or South Asia and see how brands like Xiaomi are gobbling up the world markets. Brands like AAPL and Western car companies are getting boxed into a smaller and smaller market. If the dam breaks and Xiaomi gets momentum in Europe it will do serious damage to AAPL. You can see the network effects it is creating. Make the phone, the tablet, the home appliances and the car, and have it all interconnected with its AI system.
Edition: 208
- 04 April, 2025
Technology
Inflection Point Research, LLC
China contagion has spread to the US as IPR’s carrier, retail, and supplier checks indicate iPhone 14 sell-through continues to soften, coming in below expected demand for Apr. IPR believes AAPL’s planned test equipment purchases from Keysight, LitePoint and Anritsu were cancelled or delayed, suggesting slower production looking into 2H23. RF component purchases from Qualcomm, Cirrus, Broadcom, Skyworks and Qorvo have been trimmed, reflecting weakening demand. AAPL's Q3 hardware sales typically drop about -9% Q/Q, but IPR believes iPhone 14 could see declines closer to -20%. The iPhone 15 could also prove disappointing.
Edition: 161
- 26 May, 2023
Technology
KC Rajkumar continues to see substantial downside to the stock from current levels as and when investors come to appreciate the secular decline in Product revenue and stagnant Services revenue. He forecasts iPhone revenue down 10% this year and down 5% in FY24. KC expects (overall) FY23 revenue to be down 6.5% vs. consensus down 2% and FY24 revenue to be down 3% vs. consensus up 7%. He models FY23 at $369bn/$5.6 vs. consensus at $386bn/$5.9 and FY24 at $358bn/$5.4, significantly below consensus at $414bn/$6.6. TP $110 (35% downside).
Edition: 160
- 12 May, 2023
Technology
Inflection Point Research, LLC
Could report an in-line Mar quarter, but IPR expects AAPL to guide down as it faces headwinds on softening demand across multiple product lines - IPR’s US carrier store checks suggest iPhone 14 inventories increased in Feb / Mar. While China iPhone sell-through checks suggest ~10% growth for the quarter, the tech giant could find recent improvement difficult to sustain on normalising demand post-reopening. Checks on Macs are consistent with last quarter, showing continued weakness with no end in sight. Checks with Apple watches, Air Pods, and other accessories paint a grimmer picture of forecasts down up to 50% Y/Y, indicating significant inventory build due to very weak end markets.
Edition: 158
- 14 April, 2023
Technology
Inflection Point Research, LLC
IPR’s industry checks indicate a recent significant change in AAPL procurement - order cuts have been made across the board, including iPhones, Macs, iPads, Watches, and accessories. It is likely to take some time for supply and demand to normalise causing problems for suppliers in the near term. In a separate note, IPR also discusses the recent Bloomberg report re. AAPL's plans to replace Qualcomm and Broadcom iPhone chips with in-house solutions. IPR believes this is just the first round of a negotiation dance between Tim Cook and Hock Tan, that will ultimately lead to another LTSA.
Edition: 152
- 20 January, 2023
Communications
During each of the first two weeks of the NFL season, DirecTV’s NFL Sunday Ticket streaming service went dark at numerous times. On top of this, some customers were unable to log in and numerous users complained that the Sunday Ticket app blacked out certain games even though they were available locally. After this football season, NFL Sunday Ticket will likely have a new home because DirecTV’s rights are set to expire this year. Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are reportedly in the running to secure the rights.
Edition: 145
- 30 September, 2022
Technology
Form over substance - unimpressed with AAPL’s latest launch event, Richard Windsor believes the tech giant is now going to feel the full sting of the weak macro environment. Against this backdrop, the shares are not particularly cheap and there are plenty of other options to look at that offer far higher growth at a lower multiple. In a separate note, Richard also discusses the difficulties AAPL faces to keep both the CCP and the US Congress happy and is likely to be forced to drop its budding relationship with YMTC, meaning the Chinese memory chip maker will disappear once again into industry obscurity.
Edition: 144
- 16 September, 2022
In-house modem development is tougher than it looks
Inflection Point Research, LLC
The blogosphere continues to buzz that Apple's in-house modem will not ship in 2023 and the iPhone 15 will ship with 100% Qualcomm silicon - while Michael Fox does not believe AAPL has “failed”, it is proving to be more difficult than Johny Srouji and his team anticipated. AAPL highly unlikely to risk all-important iPhone franchise on first-generation internal silicon; will begin the switch with iPads / Macbooks which have simpler use models. As with AAPL, Samsung continues to struggle with its LSI modem. Despite years of experience with developing / shipping in-house modems, design flaws could push the company to ship all 2023 Galaxy S models with QCOM modems.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022
Carmageddon
Apple declares war on OEMs - expansion of CarPlay into the instrument cluster pushes OEMs further away from the Digital Life of the vehicle and brings them closer to being handsets on wheels. RFM’s research has found that electrification and autonomy could reduce vehicle transport spending by up to 65% which no OEM is likely to survive in its current form. Hence, it is crucial that OEMs have a seat at the table when it comes to delivering digital services in the vehicle. So far OEMs have kept Google out of the heart of their vehicles, they now need to treat AAPL in the same way.
Edition: 138
- 24 June, 2022
Communications
Have Apple’s new privacy restrictions permanently damaged Snapchat’s ad business? AAPL’s new anti-tracking restrictions represent more of a short-term headache than any permanent degradation of SNAP's ad value, according to Blueshift’s interviews with advertisers, agencies and other industry specialists. However, perception of SNAP as an ad vehicle skewed negative, with sources citing a lack of innovation, slow movement on e-commerce tools and a continued perception of Snapchat as a messaging app.
Edition: 127
- 21 January, 2022