Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
Company Research
Oil: Waiting for a downward spiral?
Vandana Hari doesn’t see a plausible path to an equitable compromise in the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, at least not within the timeframe President Trump has in mind. The market seems to agree, moving no more than 2% on any given day over the past four weeks, with Brent stuck in the low $60s. Glut-watchers are still waiting for a downside spiral that, judging by the more bearish oversupply forecasts, could have materialised at any time since the start of this quarter. However, Vandana says that the idea a Ukraine deal will unleash a flood from floating storage in a step change may be overstated. Before the market can price post-sanctions flows, it must contend with escalating Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure; unless Washington leans on Kyiv to halt these, further attacks on refineries/ports and potential sea-drone strikes on “shadow fleet” tankers could keep risk premium embedded.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Markets are misreading the China steel story
Beijing’s latest Five-Year Plan signals a shift from volume growth to productivity, profitability and price stability. William Hess notes that headline production cuts are likely smaller than consensus; actual 2025 output appears underreported, and Beijing is taking care not to deindustrialise too quickly. Contrary to what some investors think, capacity adjustments will focus on improving operating rates and margins, not aggressive output suppression, which should be supportive of better than consensus iron ore demand – the current institutional outlook of average prices drifting to low $90s by Q2/2026 is too bearish. On the demand side, expect a better year in 2026 supported by multiple factors including a moderate recovery to infrastructure investment, manufacturing capex and machinery upgrades, as well as a tailwind from ODI. William also notes that capacity reductions could stem from carbon costs, which could wipe out 10-15% of inefficient producers if set at RMB 150-200/ton.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
The end of Net Zero at any price
As the global energy sector digests the outcome of the 2025 Duke of Edinburgh Future Energy Conference, mainstream financial press like Forbes is reporting a “reluctant consensus” regarding the transition: costs are high, timelines are slipping, and fossil fuels remain dominant. But while the headlines are catching up to the mood, Commodity Intelligence has already defined the mechanism. James Burdass produced a detailed write up on December 2nd, which can be accessed below. While others were observing a general sentiment shift, James was the first to codify this new era as the “Age of Industrial Realism.” By looking beyond the public speeches and tapping into the critical private intelligence exchanges at Mansion House, James helped shape the debate by moving it from vague “macroeconomic concerns” to hard-nosed structural realities.
Click here to read the report.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
China: Shifting the focus
China’s leaders discussed their economic priorities for 2026 at the recent Politburo meeting. According to Andrew Polk, the short readout largely signals policy continuity, calling for:“Continued implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy”. This mirrors the Politburo’s prescription for 2025 macro policy one year ago. However, there was a nod to “cross-cyclical policy” (which was absent from last year’s readout), which indicates that macro policy will not be as supportive in 2026. Specifically, the readout calls to: “Strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policy adjustments”. For reference: Cross-cyclical policies are more long-term in nature, targeting structural challenges – such as demographics and innovation – to raise potential growth. Andrew says senior policymakers appear less worried about short-term growth in 2026 than they were a year ago, and are once again shifting focus toward longer-term structural issues.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Hungary: Another good year for the forint?
2025 was a good year for the forint, in light of weak demand, lower inflation and a supportive external balance. Jonathan Anderson remarks that 2026 will likely be the same. The MNB is in no hurry to resume easing, real interest rates are solidly in positive territory and there's no sign of credit or demand pressures going into the new year. Jonathan was on the sidelines with HUF in 2025, but is now taking up the carry trade for a while. There’s still no end to the equity rally. CEE stock indices continue to "blow the doors off" the rest of EM, in Hungary's case led by main listed name OTP Bank. As before, however, this is not a reflection of Hungarian macro trends at home.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
US: Rumble in the market jungle
The bull may have danced like a butterfly, but the bear has once again shown its ability to sting like a bee. US equities recently triggered a 5% drawdown alert from their 52-week highs, with S&P500 key support at 6500. Only a weekly close above psych level at 7000 would neutralise the mean-reversion signal. Ron Williams points out that late-cycle signals are flashing: broad market weakness, crowded mega-caps under pressure despite strong earnings, shifts in investor psychology towards balance-sheet strength, and macro uncertainty. As risk appetites fade, gold remains a resilience diversification play while it’s LT trend holds above $3,930. Multiple timing models suggest a potential high-risk cyclical inflection heading into Q1 2026, with tightening conditions, slowing growth, margin pressures and crowded trades converging. Ron advises investors to stay flexible, patient and diversified, to emphasise balance-sheet quality over speculative growth, and to follow RWA tactical strategies to enhance trade setups and market timing.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
2026 risks being overstimulated
Developed economies enter 2026 with inflation above target, labour markets tight, wage growth solid and governments running gargantuan budget deficits. Yet Gerard Minack points out how markets expect most central banks to ease or keep policy rates steady, Japan (and Canada & Australia) excepted. There are many hard-to-calibrate risks – such as the war in Europe, US trade policy, Fed independence – but the base-case macro-outlook is for at-or-above trend growth that threatens higher inflation and undermines the case for easier monetary policy. Gerard will discuss the implications of this for markets next week. Spoiler alert: two of the biggest issues for investors – the AI equity trade and risks around developed economy sovereign bonds – don’t hinge on the near-term cycle forecast.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
The US-China AI war
The White House will allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China, but the 25% tariff presents a disincentive to sell at a time where demand is so high money can be made elsewhere instead. Xi remains the biggest hurdle, who maintains that technological independence takes priority over economics. China’s chips are much less capable, with Richard Windsor calculating that Huawei’s SuperPod system is 32x less efficient than Nvidia’s equivalent. Although Chinese AI models are performing well, the country simply cannot compete when it comes to the tech. It’ll be a long while before Nvidia and AMD truly re-enter the Chinese market, and the country will continue to stay behind with little scope for it to catch up due to its lack of cutting-edge hardware. For now, the West has the advantage.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Cisco's 800G just hit the same wall GPUs did
Technology
JNK Research indicates CSCO's Silicon One networking roadmap faces the same thermal management bottleneck that constrained Nvidia and AMD GPU production. CSCO is ramping wafer starts 8x - from 1k to 8k annually - at TSMC in 1H26. However, heat spreader suppliers already operate at 85%+ utilisation with capacity concentrated among few Taiwan suppliers. The company is proactively qualifying secondary thermal suppliers and paying for tooling upfront to secure allocation. This mirrors the CoWoS packaging constraints that limited GPU shipments in 2024. Networking ASIC thermal requirements are approaching GPU-level complexity as data centre switches migrate from 400G to 1.6T.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Ferrari (RACE IM) Italy
Consumer Discretionary
AlphaValue sees the recent share price correction as a compelling entry point, arguing that RACE’s equity story is unchanged: a scarcity-driven model, limited volume to protect residual values and earnings growth driven by mix, personalisation and pricing. The market’s disappointment with the 2030 targets is misplaced - management has a long track record of beating guidance and the new goals look intentionally conservative. Demand remains exceptionally resilient, supported by a growing collector base, rising UHNW populations and consistently oversubscribed limited series. The stock trades at a discount relative to its historical performance and direct peers, providing a safe haven in the automotive and luxury space, insulated from macroeconomic headwinds, trade disputes and China-related risks. TP offers >40% upside.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Industrials
Results will not live up to the enormous expectations surrounding this story, as the company shows almost no customer traction beyond Walmart. While SYM is rolling out systems across 42 WMT distribution centres through 2029, new wins have been minimal, leaving a massive revenue gap ahead. In contrast, competitors Knapp and Witron have announced dozens of new customers since 2022 including new business with WMT. Half of the company’s touted $22bn backlog sits in a stalled SoftBank JV (GreenBox), with little evidence of progress. With heavy insider selling, a recent revenue restatement, TAM overstated and the stock trading at ~10x 2027 sales, the bear case sees estimates beginning to be revised down next year and SYM’s valuation potentially halving.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) Canada
Materials
A 2026 copper turnaround story - IVN is now producing from all 3 of its core and globally significant mining assets. However, this has not been reflected in the share price following the seismicity event at Kakula in May 25. The market is focused on short term risks, but Kakula’s recovery is being managed and 3Q25 volumes (annualised at 285kt/yr) likely marks the bottom. With the 3 operating assets contributing in 2026 and a new smelter set to lower costs, GMR sees next year as the inflection point. IVN also offers major exploration upside - its 100%-owned Makoko district alone has 9.2Mt of copper identified, with additional drilling across Angola, Zambia and Kazakhstan providing further optionality not priced in. Trading at 1.4x P/NPV10, IVN’s growth, scalability and asset quality make the risk/reward compelling.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Industrials
BTN views AAON as exhibiting some of the most aggressive revenue-recognition practices in its peer group. The degree to which revenue is pulled forward makes it difficult for the company to sustain momentum from quarter to quarter, resulting in pronounced volatility in reported results and limited visibility into the underlying run rate. Unbilled contract assets remain elevated at 50 days of sales (vs. 27 days a year ago), reflecting AAON’s practice of booking revenue upfront when parts are ordered. Receivables increased $96m sequentially, reaching a new high of 64 days of sales and was the primary driver of the revenue beat. Falling inventory days suggest Q3 was backloaded, consistent with the jump in accounts receivable. OCF remains negative, with BTN sceptical of management’s claims of a swing to positive cashflow in 2025. The company is borrowing and stretching payables to plug the gap.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Technology
Jun Lei (Co-Founder) purchased ~ $12.9m worth of stock at HKD 38.58. While modest relative to his 1.9 billion-share stake, the purchase is noteworthy. It is his first open-market acquisition in this stock and also represents the first meaningful insider purchase since the IPO in July 2018 at HKD 17. Despite the recent share price decline, it is interesting to see him making a sizeable purchase shortly after the company released its Q3 earnings. Smart Insider ranks the stock +1 (highest rating).
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Kroger indicates more price reductions are ahead
Consumer Staples
Scott Mushkin has been highlighting for several months that price discounting would become more aggressive by the end of 2025. His latest findings show Walmart has become increasingly willing to drive down prices and Kroger is gearing up for battle, using a part of its ecommerce rationalisation to lower prices to become more competitive. The increase in competition, unfortunately, will come with further erosion in end demand. This is related to GPL-1 coverage in Medicare and Medicaid, GLP-1 oral compounds coming to market and some additional curtailment in SNAP benefits. At the same time, the continuation of the MAHA trend will remain a headwind. This marks the beginning of what will be a tougher period for the industry, especially those such as Kroger, that have significant overlap with Walmart.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Earnings manipulation, anyone?
Two Rivers has recreated the Beneish model showing the highest potential manipulators and highlighting stocks such as QXO (due to M&A-driven sales spikes for AI supply chain plans), Joby Aviation (high growth amid declining margins), Rivian (rising accruals suggesting expense capitalisation), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (falling gross margins) and Pinterest (rising balance sheet accruals and sales growth). The model's inputs are similar to some that Two Rivers use in their own Stock at Risk's Earnings Quality model - albeit with some additional proprietary “secret sauce”.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Shorts continue to deliver impressive alpha
Vision has closed 4 short ideas so far in Q4. Wingstop, initiated in 3Q25 on the view that its rich valuation was unsustainable amid intense competition, category saturation and a disappearing customer cohort benefit, delivered 40%+ alpha. Duolingo, also a 3Q25 initiation, faced a massive influx of AI produced competition at lower cost and some slowing in KPIs, generated 30%+ alpha. Kadant, shorted in 2Q24 as a late-cycle capital goods name with deteriorating fundamentals but a “priced-for-perfection” multiple, added 30%+ alpha. Patrick Industries, initiated in 1Q25 given its peak multiple on overly optimistic estimates and exposure to excess inventory, weak demand and tariff/regulatory risks, generated 5%+ alpha. YTD, Vision has launched 13 new US shorts, 7 European shorts and 5 APAC shorts, with 2-3 more initiations expected before year-end.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Australia: The RBA isn’t as dovish as you thought
Following remarks by RBA Governor Michael Bullock, Craig Ferguson says it is clear that the RBA is not as dovish as many had thought and consensus will shift towards pricing in more rate hikes in 2026. Over the last 2 months the AU 10yr yield has risen by 75bps from 4% to 4.75% and the AU 3yr yield now stands at 4.15%, a full 55bps above the official RBA cash rate. When short and long yields are far higher than the current cash rate, that tells you that bond investors think growth and inflation are both returning such that it is unlikely for the RBA to cut rates. Indeed, 3yr and 10yr yields are now so far above official cash rates that the 3yr is suggesting in 3 years’ time the RBA cash rate needs to be 4.15% or above and the 10yr yield is saying the cash rate needs to be more than 100bps higher than it is today to stamp out persistent inflation risk.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
US: Rising yields a problem?
The Vermillion team maintain their near-term bullish outlook on the SPX and QQQ, and will maintain this view as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ continue to hold. Bears that were complaining about "bad breadth" -- which the team argued was not a big concern -- have moved on to a new worry: rising interest rates. As long as the 10-year Treasury yield is below 4.20% resistance, the team believes the equity market has nothing to worry about. And it could very well be that the 10-year yield would need to move above 4.35%, 4.50%, and even 4.70-4.80% in order to become problematic for equities, particularly if bond market volatility (MOVE index) remains subdued. Additionally, the Russell 2000 (IWM) is back above its major 4+ year base, and is extremely bullish as long as base support holds at $245.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Don’t fall asleep at the wheel, this is a secular bull market
The Spot Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Index (293.17) is the instrument that Chris Roberts’ newest data provider has, that is just about identical in shape to the Bloomberg Commodity Index that he used to feature. The breakout from the 27-month base formation targets a move to 320.00+, but Chris’s target is a new high above 2022’s 357.90. A secular bear market ended in April 2020 (see next page). The 1st leg of a secular bull market ended in 2022, and following a 30%+ decline and a distracting, time consuming sideways movement, the 2nd leg up is now underway. Indicators have room for further gains.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
US consumer confidence fell 1% in October
Carl Weinberg notes US consumer confidence was down again in October, with the Conference Board’s headline index continuing its jagged course toward the southeast corner of the chart. Expectations declined, too, and so did the index of current conditions. These confidence indices are very low, well below levels seen just before the Covid lockdowns. Carl says consumers are rattled. The survey indicates that the labour market is tight but jobs have become harder to find in recent months. The inflation expectations index for one year rose, seems to have steadied, but is still extraordinarily high! Carl believes consumer confidence this low will add to the arguments in favour of a rate cut at the FOMC… not a lot, but they do imply a slowdown of consumer spending. Whether or not that might not be a good thing—since the economy is at full employment anyway and cannot produce much more goods or services near term—is a question the FOMC should be debating.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Real Estate
JSB is defying Japan’s demographics. Despite the shrinking pool of 18-year-olds, Yuka Marosek argues the student-housing leader continues to compound growth thanks to rising university enrolment, a structural shift away from general rentals toward purpose-built student housing and JSB’s unmatched operational moat. While foreign-student demand adds another tailwind. The company runs ~99,300 units with 18 years of 98%+ occupancy and 11 consecutive years of revenue/profit growth. Valuation-wise, JSB trades at an EV/EBITDA of 8.3x and a P/E of 14.4x - levels that appear low given the group’s ability to deliver steady growth.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
September US retail sales up modestly but Q3 still strong
John Ryding points out that while the increase in retail sales was modest in September, for the quarter as a whole, sales were relatively solid with the control group measure of retail sales rising at the fastest rate (6.3%) since the first quarter of 2023. Core producer price inflation held steady in September at 2.9% but the increase over the last three months was a more rapid 4.7%. Jumping ahead to November, however, consumer confidence fell more sharply than expected as the median one-year inflation rate edged up to 4.8% from 4.7%, households’ perceptions of the labor market declined, and plans to buy autos and cars fell. John doesn’t see this report materially shifting the debate at the FOMC meeting on December 9-10 with the cut camp finding comfort in the inflation readings holding steady and the hold camp seeing potential faster price pressures in input costs and higher frequency inflation rates as well as the strength in retail sales for the quarter as a whole.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Back into gold
Charles Ekins wrote on 9th October that gold was extremely vulnerable because it had the reached the second most overbought level in 45 years at over 3 standard deviations (in terms of deviation of its price from its trend). In the EG Chartbook in early November, he reported that their model had by that stage significantly reduced the gold allocation in their multi-asset model portfolio. That model has now moved back into gold. Although gold did fall back from its peak of just over $4,350 on 20th October to below $4,000, given the level of extreme overbought, that correction in gold could well have been more extreme – so caution was warranted. However, gold has in fact stabilised and is now pushing on upwards again. The overbought "steam" has subsided somewhat - it is still vulnerable but less so. The renewed momentum has triggered a move back into gold by their model for the time being.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
The Philippines – Protests will not confront Marcos, but the president remains at risk
Major anti-corruption rallies are scheduled throughout the country for 30 November. Civil society groups primarily associated with the middle class — such as the Catholic Church, private universities, professional groups and the business community — are taking the lead. The loose coalition leading this weekend’s protest is critical to political stability, given its prominent role in shaping the broader media narrative and eventually mobilizing the broader population. The consensus view in Manila is that while the broader coalition is calling for accountability and reform, it is still not yet aiming to target President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. directly. Instead, protesters are expected to apply indirect pressure by calling for the president to allow for investigations to continue unimpeded and for the prosecution of high-ranking lower house, senate and executive officials. One key reason for the coalition’s less confrontational stance toward Marcos is that they are less certain that the president himself participated. Driving this consideration is the coalition’s deep unease over the prospect of Vice President Sara Duterte succeeding to the presidency.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Lumber price decline continues
Lumber price declines continued unabated in S-P-F last week, with 2x4s off by a further $15 at just $395. More S-P-F supply is coming out of the market this quarter, but with little excitement about H1/26 demand prospects, buyers appear to have shrugged off recent mill curtailment announcements and remain happy to operate on a hand-to-mouth basis. In SYP, 2x4 prices were flat at $326 as upcoming holidays (and disruptions to production schedules) had very little impact on trading. ERA expect that prices across North America will be flat-to-down through year-end, and Q1/26 pricing will be driven by changes to supply—clearly, more sawmill downtime is needed.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Chile – Market signals scope for further interest rate cuts
In terms of interest rates, declines continued, albeit modestly, in line with the recent trend. In particular, nominal swap rates fell by an average of 3 basis points since the previous report, although this time Igal Magendzo observed some shifts in trend compared with recent weeks. Igal notes that the market continues to assign a high probability to a reduction of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 4.5% at the December Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), consistent with his base case. It also now prices in a second additional 25bp cut during the first half of 2026. However, it still does not fully incorporate the idea of a 4% terminal rate, which the Central Bank has been signalling for quite some time. Regarding Igal’s base case, the latest macroeconomic data continue to indicate that the economy is operating close to equilibrium, and therefore near the neutral rate. As such, it would take evidence of a meaningful weakening in activity or more persistent downward pressure on inflation to justify taking the TPM below 4.5%.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
China’s slump deepens
China’s domestic economy is deteriorating. Andrew Hunt asks if this could lead to a degree of angst within the population? Domestic policy conditions look to have tightened: fiscal policy is notably less expansionary, and liquidity growth has cooled as a result. Equities appear less well bid and the rally may have stalled. Andrew also points out that the corporate sector’s weak financial situation has led to a reduction in China’s once aggressive rate of exportation of private sector capital. China is now a deflationary force within the global economy. The PBoC has acted to suppress the rise in the CNY via hefty FX intervention. Presumably, the weakness in the domestic economy will lead to another round of easing within China’s fiscal policy at some point, although concerns over fiscal sustainability could delay this action. Andrew says global investors should pay close attention to China’s fiscal stance and the nature & quantum of its capital outflows. These may yet hold the key to determining “the top” in global risk markets.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Argentina – Economy grew 5.0% year-on-year in September
The Argentine economy expanded 0.5% month-on-month in September, much better than Jorge Morgenstern’s expectations, according to the GDP proxy EMAE. Activity grew 5.0% year-over-year. There were significant upward revisions of previous data, with August now 0.9% higher than previous data release and monthly expansions since July. While the economy expanded 5.2% yoy in January-September (5.4% using the seasonally adjusted series), activity in September was 0.2% above February’s peak. As a result, GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.9% in 3Q-2025 following a 0.2% contraction in 2Q-2025, dodging a technical recession.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Brazil Central Bank waiting for clear signal on inflation
The BCB Director of Monetary Policy and Deputy Governor, Nilton David, opened his remarks at the Brazil Treasury Summit by highlighting that the rate-hiking cycle is over and that raising the Selic is not part of the baseline scenario. He stated that the priority now is understanding when the cutting process may begin, something fully conditioned on data convergence. He stressed that the Central Bank is waiting for clear signs of inflation and expectations easing before moving forward, and that forward guidance is not appropriate in a highly uncertain environment. According to Andrea Damico, David’s remarks reinforced the sense of a technical Central Bank highly focused on keeping expectations anchored, aligned with recent speeches by President Gabriel Galípolo. The communication emphasized the priority of preserving credibility, avoiding unnecessary volatility, and consolidating the disinflation process. The messages indicate confidence in the effectiveness of monetary policy, while acknowledging that full convergence still depends on a lower-uncertainty environment and disciplined communication. Overall, the tone reinforces prudence, mandate focus, and continuity in strategy.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Gold and silver to remain volatile with underlying strength
Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the increasingly unstable economic and political environment and what it means for gold, silver, and broader precious metals markets. He compares today’s conditions with the late 1970s, noting both the similarities and critical differences to that period, and what those differences may mean for gold and silver prices. Jeff looks at the volatility across gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, explaining the factors influencing investor anxieties. He also discusses economic shifts, including weakening U.S. influence on the global stage. The video concludes with a look at inflation data, consumer behavior, policy risks, and why CPM Group expects a recession within the next 12–24 months.
Click here here to watch
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
UK Budget is negative for economic growth
Mark Bathgate's initial thoughts on the overall shape of the UK Budget is welfare spending and taxes up a lot, borrowing up in the first two years of the budget period, with most tax hikes coming years 4 and 5. He points out that the Budget looks to be negative for growth – primarily via the further decline in household real after tax income, and likely impacts on confidence from the messy process of recent weeks and prospects of many years of rising taxes. Moreover, three key expenditure areas have not been addressed which questions the sustainability of the current budget:
* defence spending (no funding for NATO commitments entered into at June summit);
* Ukraine 2026 & 2027 budget which UK is publicly committing to contribute significantly to;
* local government financing crisis.
Overall, Mark says this looks to maintain the trend we’ve seen over the last 15 months: higher borrowing; lower economic growth; steeper gilt yield curve/higher long gilt yields; and more speculation about next round of tax hikes. However, Mark also says that one positive is that there are less inflationary risks relative to the previous budget.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Watching The Tides – The ECB’s search for a new normal: QE, QT, QN
Although the process of monetary policy normalisation in the euro area is well under way, expressed as a share of GDP, total Eurosystem assets are still double what they were a decade ago. The ECB recently laid out its vision of what the journey from QE to QT to QN is likely to involve: the banks and the sovereign bond markets now need to adjust. In this article, Marcel Alexandrovich focuses on the Eurosystem (which is made of the ECB and the 20, soon to be 21, National Central Banks). The first point Marcel makes is that just as the aggregate banking data often disguises what’s actually going on at the country level across the euro area, the same is true when analysing the aggregate Eurosystem balance sheet. Repayment of the Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) and QT are reducing the size of the ECB’s balance sheet. One thing which is not clear, however, is who in the future will end up holding the large volume of European sovereign debt that currently sits on the balance sheet of the European banking system.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
US Tariffs – Trump’s IEEPA alternatives
Although the timing of the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs is uncertain, the Trump administration's stance remains one of confidence, despite the perception after the hearing that it is likely to face at least some restrictions. However, if the duties were to be struck down, there are other authorities that the White House might rely on to impose tariffs, with Sections 232, 301, 338, and 122 being possible alternatives. Of these, Section 338 imposes the fewest restrictions on Trump, with the only meaningful restriction being that the tariffs it authorizes are limited to 50 percent, which is higher than any current reciprocal tariff level. The most significant risk of using this authority, though, is that it has no history of use since its creation in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. This lack of precedent means the president’s efforts to use this authority for tariffs could face legal challenges.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Telefonica (TEF SM) Spain
Communications
The Chair, CEO, CFO and 2 other executives bought a total of €1.3m of stock at ~€3.70 following share price weakness after the earnings release and a dividend cut. Marc Thomas Murtra (Chairman since Jan 25) bought €500k of stock in his first purchase since joining TEF, Emilio Rodríguez (COO since Mar 25, joined 2018) bought €500k worth of stock in his first purchase since he became declarable in 2025 and Laura Abasolo Garcia De Baquedano (CFO since 2017) bought €91k of stock in her first clean purchase. Pablo Antonio De Carvajal Gonzalez (Divisional Director) bought €126k of stock in his largest purchase and his first since 2019. Juan Azcue Vich (CSO since Jan 25) bought €74k of stock in his first purchase since joining. Whilst a likely co-ordinated response to disappointing news, the magnitude of the purchases is notable.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Healthcare
Tom Tobin thinks there are several secular trends, including AI tailwinds, which makes RDNT a compelling idea even after its share price has rebounded in recent months. Core to Tom’s thesis is his ability to track Diagnostic Radiology staffing at RDNT, monitor turnover, and forecast volume and revenue per clinician. While the current valuation against consensus estimates appears stretched, he can model upside well into 2027 with a number of simultaneous secular tailwinds that justify the premium: 1) continued inpatient-to-outpatient imaging migration; 2) mix shift towards high-margin advanced imaging where demand is being driven by Alzheimer's, Oncology and Cardiology; and 3) AI tailwinds driving incremental revenue and operating leverage.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Time to buy Greece
Greece is healing - after a brutal 15-year wait, the country has finally regained its BBB investment-grade rating from Fitch. Despite chronic under-investment in infrastructure, Greek corporates have expanded at home and abroad and now boast strong balance sheets, often with net cash - a rarity in Europe. Ultra-low labour costs and the highest workload in the EU have boosted competitiveness, while political stability since 2019 has restored investor confidence. Yet Greek equities still trade at half their 2008 market capitalisation, leaving substantial upside for companies that are leaner, stronger and more agile than their European peers. AIR’s Buy-rated ideas include Athens International Airport, Motor Oil, National Bank of Greece and Sarantis, each offering 40-100%+ upside.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Technology
The wolf may finally be at the door…Blue Lotus downgrades the stock to Sell. SMIC posted a strong 3Q25 profit beat - mostly driven by volatile G&A associated with fab start-up - while its Q4 revenue guide of 0-2% Q/Q fell well short of Blue Lotus’ +6.8% expectation. They now see rising risk of an air pocket heading into 2026 as Beijing holds back stimulus until after March’s Two Sessions, while headwinds loom across segments that make up 75% of SMIC’s revenue: smartphone weakness from a DRAM shortage, suspension of home appliance trade-in subsidy and slowing NEV growth as tax breaks phase out. While SMIC’s aggressive capacity buildout is positive in the long run, it makes the group vulnerable to demand fluctuations and depreciation is expected to spike to 37% of revenue, leading to a gross margin cut from 26% to 17%. TP HK$51 (25% downside).
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Technology
ZM delivered a "clean sweep" Q3 that should silence the sceptics. This was not just a beat-and-raise quarter; it was a validation of the company’s structural pivot from a meeting app to an AI-first work platform. With revenue and EPS ahead of forecasts, a raise in FY26 guide and a fresh $1bn buyback authorisation, management is demonstrating immense confidence in the company's capital allocation and operational execution. The real story for investors, however, is the tangible monetisation of AI: usage is up 4x Y/Y and paid AI features are now anchoring 9 out of 10 large CX deals. With the core business stabilising and the AI/CX growth engines firing on all cylinders, ZM offers a rare combination of deep value (trading at ~3.2x EV/Sales vs. peers at 3.7x) and highly profitable growth.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ LN) UK
Materials
Ben Jones reiterates his bullish view with the stock up ~200% since initiation in July 23. AAZ is set to enjoy a dramatic increase in net income as well as FCF which is expected to swing from -$2m (2024) to c.$126m (2026) - a 45% FCF yield on today’s m/cap. He expects AAZ to develop 3 new mines (without raising equity) over the next 5 years which will boost copper production from 2.1kt in 2023 to around 40kt per year from 2028. Ben increases his base case price target from £3.70 to £5.59 (150% upside), assuming long-term copper prices at $4.50/lb, but with optionality to £8.00+ if long-run copper averages $5.50/lb, as forecast by Citi and BAML. Since publication of Ben’s report, AAZ has disclosed it is in preliminary takeover talks - unsurprising given his view that the market continues to undervalue the company’s asset base and growth profile.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Financials
Abacus revisits BN after a 70%+ rise since their Jan 24 write-up, arguing the fundamentals remain as compelling as ever. They still see a 22% IRR over the next 2 years - even assuming a persistent ~30% SOTP discount. BN’s thesis is simple despite its perceived complexity: a longstanding focus on infrastructure positions it as a major beneficiary of US on-shoring and increased infrastructure spending, while structural growth tailwinds support its insurance and wealth platforms (Brookfield Wealth Solutions is highly attractive at ~1x book, given 15% ROE). Although BN is improving its communication, Abacus argues few investors appreciate the value, leaving ~35% upside to their TP of $63.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
Paragon Intel is bearish on HOG’s new CEO, Artie Starrs, arguing that while he may mend dealer relations and bring an outsiders’ perspective to the company, he is not equipped to deliver the deep brand turnaround required after two prior CEOs already failed to halt the brand’s decade-long decline. Paragon’s analysis includes interviews with Starrs' former colleagues from Yum! Brands and Topgolf. They found mixed and often critical feedback: he is seen as polarising leader, valued by some sources as a strategic thinker with strong financial acumen, boardroom presence and the ability to drive large-scale initiatives, yet criticised by others as overly numbers-driven, aloof and weak at culture-building.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Why investors keep buying silver
In his latest video, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses recent developments in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices, and their consolidation following October’s sharp rise. He also looks at the factors that could determine the next breakout for the metals, and whether the next price move might be higher or lower. Jeff takes an in-depth look at the physical silver market and addresses several misconceptions about physical supply, fabrication demand, investment demand, and inventories. He looks at mine production, secondary recovery, fabrication demand, inventory levels, and investor activity, explaining how the market remains well supplied even as investment demand has risen sharply in recent months. Jeff also discusses ETF flows, coin sales, premiums for 1,000-ounce bars, and why talk of a “silver shortage” is misleading.
Click here to watch.
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025
US: Manhattan 2.0
James Aitken definitely understands why so many believe Xi is winning, or that he has it all over Trump, and so forth. Yet, James is becoming increasingly confident that the full industrial, financial and entrepreneurial might of the US has embarked on a Manhattan project 2.0. We are not in a trade war, or a rare earths war, but rather a supply-chain war that the Trump administration has determined it must fight. The accelerated de-risking from China now underway is not always noticed by markets, but it is not going to reverse. Through time, de-risking done right gives one the option of a full de-coupling, should the latter be deemed necessary. Unbelievable amounts of money will now be thrown at the attempt to reduce China’s leverage over the West. Whether that attempt succeeds or not is perhaps less important for investors than the fact the money and deal flow is just getting started.
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025
Financials / Business Services Idea Forum
Financials
Many of the ideas presented at MYST’s buyside event featured a rate sensitivity or credit angle, while a few focused on competitive dynamics and incorporated unique proprietary data to track. It was noteworthy that several of the stocks discussed are either trading near 52-week lows or near recent highs. The most compelling ideas included:
Chime (CHYM) - Trading at substantial discount to peers despite strong member growth potential. TP $31 (65% upside).
Nu Holdings (NU) - Earnings set to inflect as Mexico losses abate while Brazil lending re-accelerates. TP $25 (55% upside).
Kinsale (KNSL) - Combined ratio unsustainable as competition intensifies in softening market. TP $270 (30% downside).
Blue Owl (OWL) - Dividend cut likely amid elevated leverage + margin compression. TP $11 (25% downside).
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025
UK: Uncertainty in Number 10
It has begun. Last Tuesday No 10 briefed lobby journalists that the PM would fight any leadership challenge in the wake of the Budget, warning that to bring a fight could destabilise financial markets. Specifically, the finger was pointed at longtime young pretender, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who according to the Guardian, has "50 frontbenchers willing to stand down if the budget landed badly and the prime minister did not go". Helen Thomas has stated for some time that Starmer's enemies had means, motive and, with the Budget, opportunity. Now, the PM definitely knows. Briefing such specific information smacks of desperation, rather than strength. It reveals the inevitability of a challenge. It forced Streeting's official spokesman to issue a rebuttal that any plotting was "categorically untrue". By pinning his survival on the financial markets, it also leaves the PM vulnerable to those self-same markets. Meanwhile markets must price in more political volatility ahead, including risks of a more left-wing government.
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025
The Poland market boom continues
The big story in Poland today is the ongoing rally in stock prices. Of course, this isn’t just in Poland but the rest of CEE as well ... and not just in CEE but in most of EM ... led by the dramatic gains in US stocks. So, this is not "really" about Poland at all, remarks Jonathan Anderson. Having said that, he likes Poland macro. Exports continue to outperform abroad, and spending, credit and earnings continue to gain traction at home. What could get in the way? In the near term, the answer is "not much". Inflation is well-behaved, the NBP is easing, the local economy is not meaningfully leveraged and the external balance is still broadly supportive. The main "wild card" is the sharp fiscal deterioration, which will be something to watch in the medium term ahead.
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025
FDJ United (FDJU FP) France
Consumer Discretionary
Trading at the cheapest valuation since listing (9x FY25 P/E) and offering a 10% dividend yield, FDJU has more than discounted temporary headwinds. While regulatory tightening and higher taxes in France, the UK and the Netherlands will cut FY25 EBITDA by ~€55m (145bps margin drag), it is a small dent vs. the €3.3bn in lost market value since 2021. Beyond this, FDJU’s technology-focused, online-diversified model post-Kindred integration is more attractive than ever, underpinned by stable lottery cashflows. AlphaValue expects sentiment and the share price to recover sharply, calling it an exceptional risk/reward setup. Their TP offers more than 100% upside.
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
Katitas has mastered a business model that many find difficult to replicate: buying, renovating and reselling pre-owned homes with consistent success. With 36% foreign ownership, investors clearly recognise the company’s ability to address Japan’s vacant housing problem and the stock trades at a premium P/E of 18x vs. single-digit averages for residential construction peers. Following strong H2 results and raised guidance on Nov 7th, the stock jumped 10%. Yuka Marosek’s latest piece explains why Katitas’ unique business model deserves that premium.
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025
Materials
GMR upgrades GMD to Buy, viewing it as a compelling gold play in Western Australia’s Leonora–Laverton region, which accounts for ~20% of national production. The business has continued to advance organic opportunities and strategically bolt-on stranded resources, and now has the resource base to justify mill expansions, with an updated strategy release due in 1H26. GMR assumes a 2Mt/yr expansion at Gwalia, fed by Tower Hill and Laverton, supporting production growth towards 350-400koz/yr. Trading at 0.6x spot NPV5, GMD screens attractively vs. peers, offering appealing growth and rising NPV potential. Regional consolidation remains a key theme, with the company positioned as both a predator and potential target within a competitive Northern Goldfields landscape.
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025