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Company Research
Lithium production to exceed demand to 2030
Lithium, like other minor commodities, is marked by volatile short- to medium-term cycles, with an extraordinary bull market of 2021–2022 followed by a relatively prolonged bear market. This is despite very strong demand growth, due to an equally strong (or greater) advance in production, plus inventory de-stocking. David Radclyffe finds evidence for a continued market surplus out to 2030. Although prices have recently started to turn up, an excess of idled capacity along with significant new projects coming online suggests prices will hover around the top of the cost curve for some time. Of late share prices have moved up ahead of the commodity prices, with equity markets getting more optimistic. Investors should be cautious and favour those already in production or juniors with fully financed projects. David has no Buy-rated stocks dealing in lithium. Pilbara Minerals Ltd has outperformed and, now looking expensive, is downgraded to HOLD. Rio Tinto Plc and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile SA are rated HOLD, while Albemarle Corp, Energy Resources of Australia Ltd, IGO Ltd and Mineral Resources Ltd are rated SELL.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Large cap miners: Performance and growth are not related
As Sellside and Buyside set expectations for 2025, Global Mining Research examines the recent history of the leading miners. Interestingly, only Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Albemarle Corporation, Ivanhoe Mines Ltd, and Northern Star Resources Limited are estimated to have materially grown through investment and M&A over 2020-2025E. In fact, most miners have shrunk in terms of Cu Eqv. Production, and exiting coal was a clear trend. The copper miners have outperformed, despite iron ore miners clearly returning the most cash to shareholders in dividends. Buybacks should have helped the share price return but there is little evidence this works. For over half the group, a ‘buy and hold’ strategy has not generated a robust return over the period. This reinforces the view that miners are to be traded.
Edition: 202
- 10 January, 2025
Materials
ALB sweetens its offer for Liontown to A$3.00/share, a significant premium to its initial reported offer of A$2.20/share in Oct 22. ALB’s persistent interest in LTR points to a long-term plan that would secure stakes in 3 of the top 5 Australian spodumene mines, while it also reduces Chilean exposure and increases US FTA compliant production. However, the downside is that it is a full price being paid, leveraging the balance sheet and likely locking ALB out of other moves, at least for a few years. GMR maintains their Sell rating on the stock.
Edition: 169
- 15 September, 2023