EQT (EQT SS) Sweden
Financials
Fighting Financials reiterates their short thesis on EQT and lowers their TP to SEK205 (~30% downside). EQT continues to lose market share, growing FAUM at +7.8% in 1Q25, materially below sector peers. The firm faces structural headwinds - sticky interest rates are reducing prospective IRRs and volatile markets are preventing easy exit opportunities, while LPs also remain overexposed to private assets, making fundraising more difficult. Rising PE portfolio company defaults (especially in France) and increased distressed credit activity further underscore market stress. In this environment, Fighting Financials prefers the more adaptable alternatives specialists like Apollo and as geopolitical tensions rise, the case for investors hiding in the more “anti-fragile”, defensive financials becomes more compelling.
Edition: 214
- 27 June, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
The merger spread has widened significantly since Apollo Global Management’s all-cash offer for TEN was first disclosed (currently stands at 18% having hit 37% in May). So, is the TEN situation simply a victim of the current market disruption or is there something more to this spread? Robert Sassoon assesses the regulatory risk (low) as well as the risk of APO reconsidering the transaction (unlikely). Assuming the transaction closes by the end of the year, there remains considerable IRR to game in the 30-55% range, but even if the deal closes in 1Q23 you are still looking at an IRR in excess of 20%.
Edition: 137
- 10 June, 2022