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Company Research
Why smart money isn’t buying crypto stocks yet
Crypto stocks are unwinding sharply and some of the most hyped names are now down 30-50% from their highs. Markus Thielen says this isn’t just about short-term corrections - it’s about the deeper repricing of crypto’s equity narrative. Some names may still have room to fall, while others could be nearing high-conviction entry points. In June, Markus flagged that several crypto-related stocks were losing momentum, prompting his take-profit recommendation on Coinbase and warning that others could follow - notably Kakaopay, Metaplanet and Circle. Since then, the damage has been significant with all three names falling heavily. Valuations remain stretched - Circle still trades at a forward P/E of 153x, compared to 102x for Coinbase and 69x for Robinhood, leaving room for further downside. A 30% correction in Circle, or similarly in Kakaopay with its 128x P/E, would not be surprising.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
Crypto: Soaring higher
Bitcoin's explosive +160% rally since January 2024 has exposed the fragile economics of Bitcoin miners, with most struggling to keep pace. 10x Research reveals that only a few miners, such as Core Scientific, which achieved +187% gains, have outperformed Bitcoin, while others face rising costs and declining profitability. In contrast, Coinbase offers a more compelling opportunity, with a clear correlation between its stock price and Bitcoin, making it a better play in the current market; their regression with Bitcoin analysis reveals a potential upside of +45%. The team also recommend a spread trade: long Bitdeer vs short Marathon Digital. As Wall Street eyes crypto IPOs worth $100 billion, the stakes have never been higher for the crypto industry.
Edition: 211
- 16 May, 2025
Financials
COIN and all other companies in crypto are a waste of time unless you are convinced that crypto itself will go mainstream. Robert Graham-Brown thinks it will, with utility technology waiting for its moment in the sun. His latest report includes key takeaways, such as stablecoins being very important for the likes of COIN and that AI agents and crypto were made for each other. With potentially clearer legislation on the way, especially from a Trump administration, alongside a growing appetite for crypto, Robert sees the likes of COIN being able to generate similar returns to owning crypto, with a potential upside of +55%.
Edition: 204
- 07 February, 2025
Bitcoin: The speculative craze is over
It’s always risky to call a market top, particularly in crypto. Still, Jawad Milan feels that it’s important to point this out: the current patterns suggest that we are at a pivotal moment. Whether it’s a major turning point or just another phase in Bitcoin’s cycle, it’s something we shouldn’t ignore. Much like the Glencore IPO in May 2011, which marked the end of the commodities supercycle, Coinbase’s public listing in 2021 signalled the top in digital assets. Glencore has since seen a large surge precipitated by a massive fall, and Coinbase followed a similar trajectory, with its stock opening at $381, climbing to $429, then plummeting 92%. It has since rallied 965% to a recent high of $341, reaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, just like Glencore in 2018. Jawad estimates potential upside levels of $102,000-$116,000. The speculative energy has been exhausted; now we’re in a market with less upside.
Edition: 200
- 29 November, 2024
Financials
Galliano's Financials Research
JPX is Victor Galliano’s 2024 high conviction buy amongst the global exchanges, for its attractive valuations, as well as its potential for increased market activity and big data revenue growth. He believes that JPX is the exception to the rule that DM exchanges need to diversify their revenue bases, as it is under less de-regulatory pressure. Victor sticks with Hong Kong Exchange as his deep value pick, as well as Deutsche Boerse, but remains negative on Coinbase (he thinks we are close to exhausting the positive surprises and the fundamentals remain challenging).
Edition: 176
- 22 December, 2023
The greatest macro trade of all time
Raoul Pal has believed that since 2008, business cycles are largely in sync all around the world, driven by the global debt jubilee when rates were set to zero. When the interest payments inevitably rise, GDP growth falls below the cost of these payments, and a cycle later these payments end up on the balance sheets of central banks, debasing the currency. This has created a near-perfect cyclicity in the global economy hitherto unimaginable. The next step for Raoul’s The Everything Code was for the Fed to go on hold, and next up should be the end of QT and rate cuts in 2024. This is the path of The Everything Code, which if it plays out will be the greatest macro trade of all time. How to take advantage? There’s a lot that investors can do, but Raoul believes that Coinbase and Tesla will both massively outperform next year, and Solana and Ethereum even more.
Edition: 175
- 08 December, 2023
Bitcoin: Everyone loves a comeback
Despite frozen withdrawals, hedge fund drama and regulatory shutdowns, Bitcoin has returned to its pre-TerraLuna collapse glory. How can this be possible amidst the bankruptcies and lawsuits? Bad news that fails to send prices lower can be interpreted as a bullish sign, and if the news turns positive… Similar to how Glencore’s IPO in 2011 signalled the end of the commodities supercycle, Coinbase’s heralded the top in digital assets. Only thing is, Glencore regained its IPO price last year, and Coinbase stock is up 154% this year. Bitcoin’s volatility is historically low and the Bollinger Bands are the tightest on record, which happens before a strong trending move. Brace yourself.
Edition: 168
- 01 September, 2023
Don’t miss out on Crypto
The chart of Crypto Total Market Cap Exclude BTH and ETH is one of the most bullish charts Raoul Pal has ever seen, which may well give us a repeat of 2015-17; this has been Raoul’s base case for a while. This would ignite Solana, which will break the inverse head-and-shoulders. There’s also some big news brewing in the crypto space, with the Bitcoin spot ETF about to get passed. Interestingly, when the SEC asked all of the ETF providers to say which exchange they will use, they all said Coinbase, which Raoul sees as a repeat of Amazon in the early 2000s. BUY Coinbase, Ethereum, Solana and double KR1 LONG position.
Edition: 165
- 21 July, 2023
Financials
Tom Chanos reiterates his short recommendation following “stunningly horrible” 4Q22 results. Despite increasing commission rates and not paying interest on customer deposits, COIN is still very unprofitable. Despite cutting expenses and laying off employees, total operating expenses are increasing faster than revenue, which is decreasing. Meanwhile, regulatory scrutiny is set to intensify. Regulators have already forced exchange Kraken to cease and desist its staking program and fined them $30m. You can bet that they are looking at COIN as well. The share price has fallen 70% since Tom turned bearish, but his TP of $25 still offers 60% downside.
Edition: 155
- 03 March, 2023
London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) & Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GR)
Financials
Galliano's Financials Research
Victor Galliano sticks with his core theme for global exchanges of growing post-trading revenues, as well as capitalising on “big data” in financial transactions and data services, as we move into 2023. He identifies four relative value opportunities. In addition to the two mentioned above, HKEx and MexBolsa feature positively multiple times in Victor’s value screens and they are all diversifying revenue streams. He sticks with Coinbase as the exchange to avoid. Its revenue streams are heavily exposed to low volumes of crypto transactions and recent events highlight counterparty risk.
Edition: 151
- 06 January, 2023
Financials
FTX’s collapse sparks interest in the different actors in the crypto space - Paragon to begin vetting COIN’s CEO Brian Armstrong and CFO Alesia Haas. While they have no reason to believe that anything not "above-board" is occurring at the company, key executive departures, large insider selling, and self-assessed internal controls in a very volatile asset class should always require further examination.
Edition: 149
- 25 November, 2022
Short model portfolio outperforms by 31%
26 out of New Constructs’ 32 ideas outperformed in 1H22 with an average return of -50% compared to a 19% decline for the S&P 500. Underscoring just how important reliable fundamental research is in turbulent markets, their model portfolio has beaten the S&P by an even wider margin (48%) since the start of 2021. Top performers have been Coinbase, Carvana, Peloton, Snap, Beyond Meat and Lyft. As we enter 2H22 high conviction shorts include Netflix, Uber, Shopify and Robinhood.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Another profitless prosperity stock - Tom Chanos sees no way to scale the business. FRPT has been unprofitable for 10 straight years, 2022 will make it 11. Margins are collapsing even with price hikes; burns cash like crazy (latest offering only buys them c.9 months); and much bigger competitors, no barriers to entry. Selling expensive pet food in a recession is a bad place to be. TP $25 (50% downside). Other short ideas initiated by Tom over the last year include Peloton, Carvana and Coinbase.
Edition: 139
- 08 July, 2022
Bear’s Den Idea Forum: 80% hit rate; 28% avg. alpha
Following stellar returns at MYST’s previous event, participants deliver another round of compelling ideas with significant downside potential. Interestingly, several stocks have relatively low short interest despite uncertain medium-to-long-term business prospects.
Coinbase (COIN) - Pressure from volume declines, increased regulation and continued share loss. TP $35 (50% downside).
SVB Financial (SIVB) - Shrinking Fed B/S to cause “VC / PE Winter” and stifle earnings growth. TP $240 (50% downside).
TuSimple (TSP) - Cash-burning autonomous driving software co. with inferior product years away from market. TP $1 (90% downside).
Yeti (YETI) - Material risk to outlook amid high inventories, slowing sales and raw material headwinds. TP $32 (30% downside).
Edition: 137
- 10 June, 2022
Financials
Blockchain and crypto to change the world as COIN becomes a Super App - the company boasts a highly advantaged business model with an LTV / CAC >10 even under trading volume normalisation. Abacus' 2022 EBITDA estimate of $3.5bn is +50% higher than consensus. Their compelling 70-page report also addresses investor concerns re. increased regulation (will be a long-term positive) and fee pressure. TP $364 (~60% upside).
Edition: 120
- 01 October, 2021
Bitcoin the new gold? No, it’s Tulip 2.0!
Gaius King explains in detail why Bitcoin is doomed to collapse. The energy-intensive currency - a CDO without any collateral – is being pushed up by speculators who fail to understand what constitutes a currency; Gaius estimates almost 100% of cryptocurrency transactions today are speculative. He recommends a number of shorts, particularly mining companies including Marathon Digital Holdings, Coinbase and Riot Blockchain. If you want to buy then look towards reliable gold, with Gaius recommending the likes of De Grey Mining and Gold Road Resources.
Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021
Coinbase (COIN)
Financials
Discussions re. $100bn valuation are ridiculous - implies revenue will be 1.5x the combined 2020 revenues of two of the most established exchanges (Nasdaq & ICE). It has no chance of meeting future profit expectations. As the crypto currency market matures, transaction margins will drop precipitously; competitors will cut trading fees to zero to try to increase market share. New Constructs explain why an $18.9bn valuation is far more appropriate, while their report also aims to help investors sort through COIN’s complex financial filings.
Edition: 108
- 16 April, 2021