Consumer Discretionary
Paragon Intel is bearish on HOG’s new CEO, Artie Starrs, arguing that while he may mend dealer relations and bring an outsiders’ perspective to the company, he is not equipped to deliver the deep brand turnaround required after two prior CEOs already failed to halt the brand’s decade-long decline. Paragon’s analysis includes interviews with Starrs' former colleagues from Yum! Brands and Topgolf. They found mixed and often critical feedback: he is seen as polarising leader, valued by some sources as a strategic thinker with strong financial acumen, boardroom presence and the ability to drive large-scale initiatives, yet criticised by others as overly numbers-driven, aloof and weak at culture-building.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
HOG features as one of the top short candidates in Two Rivers’ Declining Business Model. Sales have fallen at an accelerating rate since the Jun 23 quarter. Sales per employee are at previous lows of $912k per employee. Margins have given up their post-Covid bounce. SG&A was being cut through Mar 22, then increased on upbeat expectations that did not pan out and is being cut again. Unlevered FCF appears to be recovering but on unsustainable working capital liquidation. EBITDA is declining and the company needs to make its capex. Leverage has risen post-Covid with maturities every year until 2030. At the last earnings release, guidance was weak and the stock fell.
Edition: 187
- 31 May, 2024
Exploiting Special Situations in Your Equity Strategy
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Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021