Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
Company Research
MAER Best Ideas
MAER (The Monitor of Analyst Earnings Revisions) is Mill Street’s long-standing multi-factor quantitative stock selection model and graphical tool. It uses proprietary indicators for earnings estimate revisions, price action and valuation to forecast intermediate-term relative returns for ~6500 stocks globally. With Q3 earnings reports in full swing, the latest monthly MAER updates for the Russell 1000 universe show ~60% of the universe is maintaining positive revisions trends, a relatively high proportion though off its recent peak. While Tech estimates remain quite strong, the sector has had a big move recently and the sector that stands out as a potential contrarian play is Financials, where estimates are still rising but relative returns have lagged lately, improving relative valuations. The list of highest-ranked stocks includes many Financials from multiple industries, including Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, US Bancorp and Chubb.
Edition: 224
- 14 November, 2025
Capital Markets at Risk: Jefferies echoing Bear Stearns
Financials
Charles Peabody believes we are in the mature phase of the capital markets cycle, with revenues likely topping out in 2026, while stocks are expected to turn lower well before then. He recommends selling Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs on near-term strength. Credit and liquidity stresses are emerging following the automotive credit, Tricolor and First Brands developments, while syndicated loan offerings are being pulled. He sees echoes of Bear Stearns at JEF, noting that MS and BlackRock have ended relations with Bonita Point, the JEF subsidiary housing First Brands receivables, just as this rapidly growing broker reached top-tier status. Sell Capital Markets, Buy NII - he favours Citi, M&T, Citizens Financial and UBS.
Edition: 222
- 17 October, 2025
Outside of AI, why invest in the US?
US equities remain the world’s most important market, but passive benchmarks are distorted by AI concentration risk. Durable alpha lies in structural themes beyond AI. Power infrastructure (Constellation, Duke, NextEra) will benefit from grid bottlenecks as data centres drive demand. Re-industrialisation (Caterpillar, Honeywell, Rockwell) reflects reshoring and automation. The energy transition (Dominion, Enphase, ExxonMobil) requires trillions in capex. Housing scarcity (D.R. Horton, Home Depot, Lennar) is a structural imbalance. Healthcare innovation (Abbott, Eli Lilly, UnitedHealth) rides longevity and med-tech advances. Cybersecurity (Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) is non-discretionary. Generational wealth transfer (BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Schwab) reshapes capital flows. The AI productivity super-cycle is real, but thematic allocations across these shifts offer broader, smarter US exposure.
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
Financials
Following the US election, the team at Fighting Financials continue to like the shares of MS on a 6-to-12-month view. Whilst consensus expectations into 4Q24 are reasonably high, the team think FY25 expectations are overly pessimistic. Indeed, consensus has not yet modelled the impact of Trump tax cuts or the indirect uptick in deal and trading activity resulting from the new administration’s deregulatory tilt. On FFL estimates, the shares yield 5.2% on FY24e dividends and buybacks. Such distributions should provide some near-term support for the shares into year end. Other catalysts include continued headlines on Trump’s new team and broader US equity market beta.
Edition: 199
- 15 November, 2024
Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) India
Communications
The percentage of funds invested in BHARTI reaches 15-year highs. Over the past 6 months, ownership increases have been the highest among Indian peers, propelling the telecoms company to the 7th most widely owned stock in India. This has been primarily driven by Growth and Aggressive Growth investors, with other style groups largely absent. 27 funds have initiated new positions, with no closures, and notable new investors include Fidelity, GQG and Morgan Stanley. While BHARTI’s ownership has been steadily increasing for over four years, it remains a net underweight and lags behind other Indian large-cap peers. Even within Copley’s peer group, there are still 87 former holders who are not currently invested. The bull market may not be over just yet!
Edition: 193
- 23 August, 2024
Banks announce capital plans after passing Fed stress test
Financials
Charles Peabody believes the banks conducted themselves well in fairly harsh stress tests that indicate an excess of capital in the sector. If regulators don’t panic, the path from crisis to normalisation can proceed even if we confront a mild recession. Charles favours the fundamental strength of JPMorgan but notes the underappreciated capital power of PNC and Wells Fargo. He is attracted to the adjusted yields of Citizens Financial and M&T while commenting that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs also fare well in this category.
Edition: 164
- 07 July, 2023
Financials
Has been one of the best performing large cap bank stocks in recent years, but at current prices, the stock is not discounting potential capital constraints, a reduced buyback (Charles Peabody expects it to be cut in half), and near-term risks that include capital markets challenges and the Twitter ‘hung loan’. At 2x TBV the stock is more expensive than JPMorgan yet offers discounted returns. For dividend yield support there are other sources of high yields among other banks with less risk.
Edition: 146
- 14 October, 2022