AI driven 10Q / 10K filings analysis
Since there are always reasons when companies change the wording in their financial filings, being alerted to these changes allows investors to realise potential risk factors and opportunities before they are reflected in the market. Recent alerts include: 1) Advanced Micro Devices - struck previous wording around the need to discount products, suggesting more confidence in pricing power. 2) Bright Horizons Family Solutions - no longer anticipating expanding operating cash flows. 3) GoDaddy - takeover target? Plus, further colour on international expansion plans. 4) Gilead Sciences - more competitive market for Bulevirtide. 5) Installed Building Products - new change in control agreement prompted by external takeover interest? 6) New York Times - increasing concerns re. competitors gaining market share at its expense.
Edition: 218
- 22 August, 2025
Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time
"Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time". This is how a member of the Trump administration has described their political strategy to the New York Times. Just because it's the summer doesn't mean the momentum will ease. If anything, a reality TV star President entering his ninth decade with a year until the mid-term elections will relish several weeks where he can further dominate the media cycle. According to Helen Thomas, the focus for the financial markets will be on the kerfuffle over data and the changing of the guard at the Fed. They are intimately linked. The topic for this year's Jackson Hole jamboree, which begins on Thursday 21st August, is "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy". And now, following huge revisions lower to the non farm payrolls numbers, and the Fed returning specifically to the topic of the jobs market, the stars would seem to be aligning for Powell to deliver the rate cut in September that Trump has been calling for.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
High conviction Shorts
Revelare hosts over 40 idea events annually, sourcing 200+ original investment ideas from institutional investors. Shorts presented at a recent event included: 1) Docusign - described as a “melting ice cube” with overly bullish growth expectations for its Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM). 2) New York Times - viewed as a fully mature and fully exploited asset on a subscriber basis that likely peaked heading into the Trump vs. Harris election cycle. 3) MP Materials - a loss-making miner incorrectly perceived as a beneficiary of the trade wars, but which could actually be an existential threat for the company.
Edition: 211
- 16 May, 2025
Communications
3Q23 a seminal quarter? When one considers that: a) the general ad market backdrop is sloppy; b) the news cycle was quiet in Q3; c) NYT remains in an investment / growth mode - results were strong across the board. Net digital adds accelerated. Advertising was stronger than expected buoyed by a surprisingly strong contribution from The Athletic and positive print advertising. Total company revenues accelerated to 9.3% growth vs. 6.3% in 2Q23. Costs were as expected; consequently adj. EBITDA increased a better than expected 30.2%. As an added bonus, net cash has continued to build. Doug Arthur raises his adj. EPS estimates for 2023E and 2024E to $1.40 and $1.62, respectively.
Edition: 173
- 10 November, 2023
Communications
Andrew Freedman recently turned bullish on the basis that NYT’s transition to a digitally-driven journalism brand has been a success and it has the potential to grow even further in the digital space. Strategic acquisitions have also diversified NYT’s product offerings and an aggressive bundling and promotional strategy will accelerate subscriber growth and drive ARPU expansion. There are also cyclical tailwinds over the next 9-12 months, as anticipated strength in digital advertising and a US Presidential Election cycle are upon us. Andrew sees NYT as the strongest digital journalism brand right now and anticipates 30% upside to its current share price.
Edition: 170
- 29 September, 2023
New York Times (NYT)
Communications
As the rumour mill goes into overdrive that NYT is looking to acquire The Athletic, Huber Research provide their take addressing 4 key questions: 1) Does the NYT care about sports and should it? 2) Would adding The Athletic bolster NYT’s expanding, digital platform, which has likely now surpassed 7m paying subs? 3) What is the best structure to manage The Athletics’ potential onboarding? 4) Does a price of c.$500m make any sense? - The acquisition makes strategic sense and should be very beneficial for shareholders. TP $56 (30% upside).
Edition: 111
- 28 May, 2021