Aluminium in transition: The neglected materials play?

Sustainable Market Strategies

Fossil fuel demand may be falling in the future, but aluminium certainly won’t, driven by demand for EV and solar adoption, the great grid buildout and more aggressive lightweighting. There are no physical constraints to aluminium supply, with bauxite a plentiful resource that can be found near the earth’s surface, yet supply is expected to tighten relative to demand beyond the next three years. China is the main reason, having imposed a national ceiling of 45m tons per year on primary aluminium production. The next big reason lies in electricity constraints; given the amount of electricity required to produce aluminium, the economics of the metal are essentially the economics of power. Competitive advantages are available for producers with sizeable recycling operations, which the team expects to outperform over the next few years. Expect the likes of Constellium, UACJ Corp and Norsk Hydro ASA to be the biggest relative winners.

Edition: 226

- 12 December, 2025

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Tenaris (TEN IM) Italy

Energy

Stockcube

Stockcube opens a short position as TEN's share price reasserts the downtrend and makes new short term relative lows. Their TP is €10.50. The stock was one of the names highlighted in Stockcube’s Daily Europe Top 200 Bulls & Bears report this week, where they also opened a long position in Lonza Group (finds short term uptrends; TP CHF600). Having recently closed shorts in Norsk Hydro (finds short term price and relative support) and Kering (finds long term support at €240), as well as closing their long position in Deutsche Bank (now trades sideways), Stockcube’s portfolio currently consists of 44 open longs and 26 shorts.

Edition: 193

- 23 August, 2024

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