PostNL (PNL NA) Netherlands
Industrials
Due to several changes in the regulatory minimum wages in the Netherlands and PNL’s high share of workers around the minimum wage level, the company will be confronted with unprecedented high wage inflation in 2024. The fact that both CLAs are set to expire within the next five months can potentially come on top of this. Whereby PNL’s pay scale structure dampened the effect of wage inflation in FY23, this will no longer be the case going forward. The impact of this, in combination with lower volumes, a deteriorating sales mix in mail and the fact that higher mail tariffs offer insufficient compensation, continues to be significantly underestimated by the market.
Edition: 173
- 10 November, 2023
PostNL (PNL NA) Netherlands
Industrials
Delivery slip - now seeing clear evidence of the insourcing and rerouting by bol.com and at a faster pace than the team at the IDEA! had originally anticipated when they published their bearish report last Oct. On top of that, DHL has stepped up competition. In Belgium, PNL has lost part of its volume to bpost and is facing higher costs for the use of its subcontractors. The pressure on margins is particularly worrying. Reduced pricing power means that tariff increases are insufficient to offset the impact of the 2022 cost inflation, let alone that of 2023.
Edition: 153
- 03 February, 2023
PostNL (PNL NA) Netherlands
Industrials
The IDEA! has published a 50 page report on PostNL and describes the difficult position that the company finds itself in for many reasons. Consumers are back on the streets, inflation sharply increasing costs for parcel logistics providers, yet the biggest challenge is the in-sourcing and re-channeling of parts of the last mile by its single largest client bol.com. Consensus estimates are still too high, investors should keep an eye on that dividend.
Edition: 145
- 30 September, 2022
PostNL (PNL NA) Netherlands
Industrials
Excellent start to the year but with PNL facing more challenging comps what should investors expect when the Covid tailwind dies down? the IDEA argue that the anticipated downturn in 2H21 results masks what is really happening on an underlying basis. In addition to the strong performance in Parcels, they explain why even a mature business such as Mail has its attractions. Management's FY guidance still looks conservative and the shares are cheap (EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.7x). Shareholders can also enjoy an estimated dividend yield of c.8%.
Edition: 111
- 28 May, 2021