PINFRA (PINFRA MM) Mexico

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Following the release of PINFRA’s FY23 results, Robert Crimes updates his long-term model forecasts - his price target of MX$343 offers nearly 100% upside. The investment case focuses on 1) An attractive mix of mature assets and newer developed assets ramping up. 2) High EM traffic growth (+2.9% CAGR in 2023-35E). 3) Strong returns in Mexican toll roads - EBITDA margins of 79.6% in 2023 (LT EBITDA growth of +6.0% CAGR in 2024-40E). Toll road opex is low and Robert estimates average construction costs per km of c.€7m, to be 1/3 of Europe but tolls per km of €0.07 only 1/3 less. 4) High IRR guarantees. 5) Rising dividend yield - from 3.1% in 2023 to 5.5% in 2025E and 13.0% in 2030E.

Edition: 185

- 03 May, 2024

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