Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
Company Research
Technology
AnteData flags a sharp deterioration in developer engagement around WIX in 2025, with a TrendRank of just 0.02 - near the bottom of their software universe. GitHub pushes and Stack Overflow discussions are especially weak, signalling that fewer developers are building WIX-related code repositories and that community interest is fading. In contrast, website-building tools Vercel and Webflow show rising coding activity, which indicates a shift in website architecture. WIX holds only ~5% of a market dominated by WordPress (~40%) and Shopify, and AI tools plus social platforms are eroding demand for traditional no-code site builders. The stock has fallen 50% YTD, bringing its Price/Sales ratio down to a moderate 3x. However, the Street still expects DD sales growth. And the stock is not yet priced like low-growth comparables such as GoDaddy or Dropbox, suggesting further downside potential.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
GLBE is an underappreciated, leader in the high growth cross-border and D2C eCommerce market. The sustainability of 25-30% revenue growth is attractive, along with the clear value added to customers despite macro challenges. Abacus believes the Shopify deal has the potential for meaningful upside surprise over the next two years. Farfetch, GLBE’s closest competitor, has exited the business giving a strong tailwind to 2H24 and 2025 new merchant bookings that underpin 30%+ GMV growth in 2025. TP $100 (90% upside).
Edition: 202
- 10 January, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
GLBE benefits from the ongoing shift to e-commerce, in which brands are accelerating the search for incremental growth in international markets. Arete sees the business at an inflection point with the Sept launch of Shopify Markets Pro; this gives it access to $14bn of SMB cross-border GMV on SHOP. They model GMV growing 5x by 2027. GLBE also benefits from having its two leading partners (SHOP and DHL) as 13% shareholders and has limited competition for its “merchant of record” solution. Arete initiates coverage with a Buy rating and a TP of $58 (55% upside), based on a 9x EV/Sales multiple on 2025 sales of $1.2bn.
Edition: 173
- 10 November, 2023
Technology
Having conducted 34 interviews on CEO Tobi Lutke and his management team (Paragon’s sources worked with these executives for 162 years combined), evidence suggests he lacks the operational acumen to oversee SHOP’s continued growth. Worrying traits include a disdain for expertise, lack of short- and medium-term vision, dearth of processes and professionalism, poor people management, and potential risk management issues around HR and data security issues. Management practices that worked when SHOP was a small start-up will not enable the company to scale.
Edition: 153
- 03 February, 2023
Short model portfolio outperforms by 31%
26 out of New Constructs’ 32 ideas outperformed in 1H22 with an average return of -50% compared to a 19% decline for the S&P 500. Underscoring just how important reliable fundamental research is in turbulent markets, their model portfolio has beaten the S&P by an even wider margin (48%) since the start of 2021. Top performers have been Coinbase, Carvana, Peloton, Snap, Beyond Meat and Lyft. As we enter 2H22 high conviction shorts include Netflix, Uber, Shopify and Robinhood.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022
Shopify (SHOP)
Technology
Exceptional management and a powerful platform provide SHOP with the potential to layer on many additional services and continue its rapid growth. Desmond Lau can see a Prime-style membership being offered to consumers; while a digital wallet could enable P2P payments for Shop App users to connect to merchants using SHOP’s new Balance banking product. CEO Tobi Lütke has fostered a corporate culture that is innovative, highly motivated and adaptable to change, which is exactly what is needed in the rapidly evolving ecommerce landscape.
Edition: 115
- 23 July, 2021