Technology
At Revelare’s TMT Investor Idea Event, a long thesis on Unity argued the company is entering a turnaround phase after missteps in M&A, leadership and pricing strategy. With both Create and Grow segments rebounding, 2025 is expected to be a reacceleration year. The launch of Vector, Unity’s new AI ad platform, could restore momentum in Grow, while Unity 6 is showing early traction in Create. EBITDA in 2026 could be $600m+ vs. the Street at $440m. Revelare also hosted a separate discussion with a former Unity executive to further explore the company’s strategic reset and execution path. Since these events Unity’s shares have risen ~40% with further upside anticipated.
Edition: 216
- 25 July, 2025
Technology
Revelare recently hosted a call for their clients on APP’s e-commerce advertising expansion. Their guest speaker was Jonathan Snow, co-founder at Avenue Z, an advertising, performance marketing and PR agency managing $75m+ in digital media spend annually across APP, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok Shop, Snap, among other platforms. Mr. Snow provided an update on his agency’s use of APP’s advertising platform for ecommerce clients, growth of brands on the platform, APP’s performance relative to Meta, growth of advertising budgets for APP, how they test for incrementality, audience demographics, CPMs, improvements to the tech stack, and competition from Unity and Liftoff, among other topics.
Edition: 208
- 04 April, 2025
Technology
Market value does not reflect the steep reduction in sales, more limited end-markets. U’s interim CEO has taken swift action, shedding low margin Create Solutions sales and disclosing abnormal ironSource revenue, yet the “new” company’s sales and FCF generation is now materially smaller. Grow Solutions sales fell sequentially in 2H23 and needs to invest in tech and resolve execution issues - all whilst cutting costs, changing management, opposing competition and navigating platform policy changes. Arete forecasts $100-200m Adj. EBITDA shortfalls vs. consensus estimates out to 2026E. TP reduces to $16 (40% downside).
Edition: 183
- 05 April, 2024
The Metaverse: A year to forget
A rotten year for The Metaverse which has one more gift to give with the cancellation of ByteDance’s Pico 5 headset, one of the most popular devices for developers. Cancellations like this and a market that halves will only serve to delay the take-off of The Metaverse as well as slow the development of the ecosystem around it. While the release of the Apple Vision Pro in 2024 could trigger renewed interest, Richard Windsor believes the segment remains uninvestable at the moment. He is keeping tabs on Roblox and Unity, but both companies are too expensive and their shares look set to stagnate / decline for a while yet.
Edition: 176
- 22 December, 2023
Technology
Management offers a grovelling apology and waters down its new revenue proposal - Richard Windsor says U's brand has certainly taken a knock and to make matters worse it has been forced to give back more than it took in order to keep developers happy. While he likes the company as it has the potential to solve the most pressing problem in The Metaverse (interoperability), investors are going to have to wait a very long time for that to become a reality. Meanwhile, the stock still trades on over 5x 2023 revenues and 48x 2023 PER - these are lofty numbers for a company that is struggling with growth. It remains one to avoid.
Edition: 170
- 29 September, 2023
Myanmar – More Sound and Fury from ASEAN, but Little Else
Indonesia will assume the one-year rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in November. There will be an increase in noise about the possibility of the organisation acting more strongly against the junta in Myanmar. Malaysia is now pushing the organisation to engage with the parallel National Unity Government (NUG) with the goal of forcing the junta to agree to a political settlement. However, the lack of consensus within ASEAN limits Malaysia's proposal from gaining traction. Myanmar’s relations with Russia and China continue to provide the junta with alternatives for diplomatic support and much-needed resources.
Edition: 145
- 30 September, 2022
China: A stronger agenda and a stronger military
Joseph Kasputys does not expect any political easing now that the Party centennial has passed. On the contrary, we will see strengthened efforts to maintain political unity and ensure progress with tech, energy and agricultural independence under the decarbonisation agenda. President Xi’s comments also make clear there will be increased spending through the military industrial complex over the next five years.
Edition: 114
- 09 July, 2021